Sent to the National Congress on Friday night (30), the Budget project had changes in relation to the economic growth estimates for next year in comparison with the parameters of the Budget Guidelines Law (LDO), which has been in process since April. The projection for growth of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP, sum of goods and services produced) in 2025 was reduced from 2.8%, in the LDO, to 2.64% in the budget bill (PLOA).
The forecast for the Broad National Consumer Price Index (IPCA), used as the official inflation index, rose from 3.1% to 3.3% for next year. Other parameters were revised. The Budget proposal predicts that the Selic Rate (the economy’s basic interest rate) will end 2025 with an average of 9.61% per year, compared to the projection of 8.05% per year that was included in the LDO. The forecast for the average dollar rose from R$4.98 to R$5.19.
The project also presented estimates up to 2028. The GDP growth forecast is 2.6% per year from 2026 to 2028. For the IPCA, the projection is 3% in the three years. Regarding the Selic, the average projection is 8.26% per year in 2026 and 6.9% in 2027 and 2028. Currently, the rate is 10.5% per year.
Regarding the IPCA, the official inflation index, the projection for next year is slightly above the center of the 3% target set by the National Monetary Council (CMN). Since the council determines a tolerance margin of 1.5 percentage points, inflation could be between 1.5% and 4.5% next year without resulting in noncompliance with the target. In July, the IPCA accumulated over 12 months was at 4.5%, exactly at the ceiling of the target.
The text sent to Congress estimates the average price of a barrel of oil (used to estimate the Union’s revenue from royalties) at US$80.79 next year and a 7.84% growth in nominal wages.
