After the defeat of the government of Daniel Ortega and Rosario Murillo in the Central American Integration System (SICA), where it failed to get the countries to elect its envoy Valdrak Jaentschke as general secretary, the co-dictator Rosario Murillo threatened to “dispense” with the regional body, but Could Nicaragua leave SICA?
For analyst and lawyer Eliseo Núñez, unfortunately for Ortega, Nicaragua has no way out of SICA, since it is a dead-end contract and is linked to regional trade, including the transit of international land cargo. Ortega could do so, but it would isolate Nicaragua from the rest of Central America and complicate matters for the country, says the opponent, who was also a deputy for Nicaragua in the Central American Parliament (Parlacen).
«Nicaragua has a huge dependence on industrially produced products such as food and Central American products (…), products that make up the basic basket, so leaving SICA politically would mean being left in a market like Cuba, a market without supplies, totally isolated.»said Núñez, on the program En Contacto, hosted by journalist Álvaro Navarro.
The rejection of his candidate within SICA
For the political analyst, the Central American countries have gradually lost their fear of Ortega’s blackmail, which is why he now only has the support of Honduras within SICA. According to Núñez, Ortega threatens the region with the private investment that operates within Nicaragua and with commercial transit through the country.
«Ortega is threatening because SICA allows international transport and commercial exchange. If he leaves, then it would be like in Mexico, where trucks arriving with merchandise from Guatemala would have to transfer the load to a truck with Mexican license plates and a trailer with Mexican license plates so they can continue to Mexico. That would complicate trade a lot.»
But could Ortega withdraw from SICA, politically, without breaking the rest of the trade and transport agreements? Navarro asked. “That wouldn’t be a threat, and if that happens, the only one who would lose is Ortega, by withdrawing politically and leaving all the agreements alive. That’s why Ortega is actually making a threat, that’s why I tell you, I hope that Central Americans lose their fear, because for Ortega that would be a brutal shot in the foot.”
«For Ortega it is “a lose-lose game”, he makes the Central Americans lose and he loses, the fear of Daniel Ortega has been removed in Central America, because there was a lot of fear of these two threats, he already did this with Guatemala, with El Salvador, but at present the Central American countries know that they will suffer for a while but the damage to Nicaragua would be irreparable.»says the analyst.
“I wish he would do it. I wish he would dare. I wish he would leave the system. He will not be able to sustain himself. Daniel Ortega would not last weeks in office. The same people in the Army and the Police, when they are hungry, will themselves look for what to do with Ortega and his family,” said the opposition leader.
At the meeting of foreign ministers representing Central American countries on August 28, Jaentschke received support for the post of Secretary General of SICA from Nicaragua (candidate country) and Honduras. Costa Rica, Guatemala and the Dominican Republic voted against, while El Salvador and Panama abstained from voting.
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When asked if there would be some kind of reaction from the Ortega government to the rejection of its candidate, the lawyer responded that «We will have to see if he takes action, «You will have to think about it once or twice.» but not for a reflective or ethical reason, he will see if it suits him or not»says Nunez.
Why is Valdrack Jaentschke counterproductive?
For Núñez, anyone proposed by Ortega is counterproductive, as was Warner Vargas (the previous candidate proposed by Ortega and who resigned in November 2023) and this taking into account that Vargas did not have the political profile that Jaentschke has.
«The Integration system would be left without international financing or donations if it is managed by an ally and/or sent by Ortega and that also applies to Manuel Zelaya, president of Honduras from 2006 to 2009 and husband of the current president Xiomara Castro, who is the one who is responsible for proposing (the secretary of SICA) in the next round.»says Nunez.
Russia and China within SICA
In April 2023, the dictatorship of Daniel Ortega and Rosario Murillo proposed including Russia as an observer country of SICA, in order to expand its presence in the region; however, the proposal was immediately rejected by the governments of Costa Rica and Guatemala.
That same month, Ortega continued to pressure the SICA governments to accept the Putin regime within the body, even stating in front of a Chinese diplomatic delegation that «Moscow’s incorporation into SICA cannot be blocked, since a decision already taken cannot be reversed.»; however, this has not been achieved so far.
According to the analyst, it would not be strange to see China as an observer within the regional system, but it is a mistake. «put in the same drawer» to China and Russia.
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«The difference is made by the United States, China is the largest supplier of the United States and the United States is the largest buyer of the Asian giant, China is not going to fight with its main client. Russia, on the other hand, has created an ideological military conflict against the United States, but China is only looking for support in negotiations with the world’s leading power.»says Nunez.
The Nicaraguan opposition must continue to insist
Following Ortega’s proposal to appoint Valdrack Jaentschke as Secretary General of SICA, the Nicaraguan opposition launched a campaign against the election of the Sandinista figure to the post, considering him a Russian spy within the body, which seemed to have an echo among regional leaders.
« The opposition can say that it has part of the victory, and I am not referring to a specific group, but to everyone on the issue of Dante Mossi not being re-elected. There was also a lot of pressure on this, with the secretary of SICA, but we must always keep talking (…) and although it may seem that there is no immediate response, the issue of Nicaragua must always be current.»says Nunez.
