The Economic Uncertainty Indicator (IIE-Br), from the Getulio Vargas Foundation, fell 2.5 points in August, reaching 107.8, returning to below 110 points after three months, an assessment of moderate uncertainty. In the quarterly moving average metric, the IIE fell 1.7 points to 109.6 points.
“With the August result, the Economic Uncertainty Indicator (IIE) recorded its third consecutive drop, returning to the most comfortable level of uncertainty, below 110 points. The media component was responsible for the drop in the month, driven by the reduction in fiscal uncertainties and the continued favorable results of economic activity. In the opposite direction, the expectations component accumulated its fourth consecutive increase, with an increase in the dispersion in the future scenarios of experts for the Selic interest rate and the exchange rate”, explains Anna Carolina Gouveia, economist at FGV/Ibre (Brazilian Institute of Economics).
Index drop
The Media component of the IIE-Br fell 3.7 points in August and reached 106.1 points, the lowest level since March of this year (105.6), contributing negatively with 3.2 points to the fall in the aggregate index.
The expectations component, which measures the dispersion in experts’ forecasts for macroeconomic variables, rose for the fourth time in a row, now by 3.5 points, and has accumulated an increase of over 20 points since last May. In August, the indicator registered 111.4 points, the highest level since June last year (116.8 points). Its increase contributed positively with 0.7 points to the IIE-Br result for the month.
