For Mexico, the behavior of job creation and the unemployment rate in the United States are relevant, since they are related to the external income it obtains.
“This lower flow of external financing to Mexico is somehow reflected in a lower availability of income within the country, in the internal market to finance different activities. Hence, the relationship of the United States labor market does have a real impact on economic activity in Mexico,” explains Víctor Gómez Ayala, director of data analytics at the Mexican Institute for Competitiveness (IMCO).
He adds that the health of the domestic market in the United States helps explain the flows of financing that the country receives via the balance of payments, very clearly in international trade, but also in remittance flows that are strictly related to the economic activity of certain sectors in the United States.
Another factor is the availability of income of international travelers coming from the United States to Mexico.
Gómez Ayala mentions that there are already signs of this slowdown of the United States in Mexico.
What do the indicators say?
Regarding these indicators of Mexico’s external income, according to Banxico data, a lower growth in remittances is observed. During the first half of the year, an amount of 31,342 million dollars was recorded, an increase of 3.6% compared to the same period in 2023.
This is a smaller growth when comparing the first half of 2023 with that of 2022, when there was an increase of 9.4%.
In the case of exports from Mexico to the United States, in the first six months of the year they were 248,385 million dollars, an increase of 3.2% compared to the same period last year.
It is a smaller increase if we compare the same period in 2023 with that of 2022, as it was 5.2%.
Regarding foreign exchange earnings from international visitors from January to June 2024, it was 16,267 million dollars, an increase of 6.9% compared to the first six months of last year.
It is also a lower growth when comparing the first half of 2023 with that of 2022, which was 16.8%.
Banxico does not distinguish these revenues by country, Concanaco Servytur points out that seven out of 10 tourists come from the United States.
