The central bank lowered its estimate for gross domestic product (GDP) with a 1.5% growthup from the 2.4% previously estimated. By 2025, growth is estimated at 1.2%, up from 1.5% previously.
“Economic growth in 2024 and 2025 is expected to be moderate, supported mainly by domestic spending. In particular, private consumption and, to a lesser extent, private investment are expected to continue expanding,” the central bank said in the quarterly report.
As regards inflation, the central bank maintained the forecast from the last monetary policy decision. The body noted that inflation will converge to the 3% target by the end of 2025, in line with the expectation of the previous report.
However, “the possibility that the effects of the shocks on inflation will be more long-lasting, that they will become more acute or that new shocks will occur that will push inflation upwards cannot be ruled out,” the report said.
In terms of employment, Banco de México adjusted the underestimation to the low for the creation of between 410,000 and 550,000 jobs registered with the Mexican Social Security Institute (IMSS).
In May, the central bank estimated the creation of between 510,000 and 670,000 formal jobs.
“Formal employment affiliated with IMSS has exhibited a clear slowdown, mainly due to the stagnation in job creation in manufacturing and the slower growth of employment in construction,” Banxico explained.
