As for the unions, it is clear that the new government’s labor agenda is ambitious, particularly due to the policy of gradual and obligatory increases in the minimum wage. The unions historically linked to the government, especially the teachers’ organizations (SNTE and CNTE) and others such as health sector workers, will undoubtedly mobilize to extend their labor rights, maintain their power and preserve their perks and privileges in the new regime. This was made very clear with the Recent announcements of salary increases to teachers in the public education system.
On the other hand, it will be interesting to see how the nascent independent unions with leaders elected in more democratic, transparent and participatory processes act. Will the new regime find ways to co-opt them or at least have them as allies, in the style of the PRI regime? Will there be struggles and differentiated actions according to the productive sector in question? Or will the unions remain content with the minimum wage policy and the popular rhetoric of the ruling coalition?
During the López Obrador government, The fortune of Mexico’s top billionaires increased considerably, so the Mexican oligarchs are not particularly unhappy with the new regime; however, the business community as a whole is worried and distrust has increased with the imminent approval of Plan C. Therefore, a difficult six-year term awaits the private sector, which has to adjust its strategies to the changing political reality.
Mexican businessmen are not inclined to confrontation and open conflict with the government. My bet is that they will try to find accommodation in the new regime, because due to the tightness of public finances, the government will need private funds to carry out its political project. The big questions are: what plan will they follow to find such accommodation? How open will the president-elect be to listening to them? And will it be possible to reconcile the goals of social vindication and labor justice with the objectives of nearshoring and economic growth that the new administration proposes?
It also remains to be seen whether the private sector will reorganize itself to act collectively through business chambers or whether it will opt for an approach of individual negotiation, in which the “friends” of the new regime gain access to perks, privileges and public-private projects, while businessmen far from political power have a tough time. For the moment, I am more inclined to the second option, both because of the history of the Mexican business community and because of the signals from López Obrador and Sheinbaum, who have done very little to separate political power from economic power (and if you don’t believe me, ask Carlos Slim).
As for intellectuals, I just wrote a long essay on the subject, So I will limit myself to saying that political analysts, writers and journalists close to Morena must decide whether to behave like authentic committed intellectuals, which means criticizing the movement from within in order to try to shape the new regime, or whether to give up criticism and take on a role of legitimization, validation and justification of the new government. Given the way they behaved with the judicial reform and other reforms of Plan C, I believe that many of them will opt for the second path and only a few will take the first path, which requires more courage, more work and more intellectual honesty.
Sadly, organized crime groups were among the actors who best understood the direction of political change in Mexico. They will emerge stronger from the change of regime and will seek to consolidate it in line with their interests.
