The financial market revised upwards expectations related to the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), inflation and exchange rate for 2024. Regarding the basic interest rate (Selic), expectations have remained stable for 10 weeks, at 10.5%, according to the Focus Bulletin released this Monday (26) by the Central Bank.
Among the four expectations presented by the bulletin, the one that registered the greatest variation, compared to last week, was the one focused on GDP, which is the sum of all wealth produced in the country.
The financial market forecasts that GDP will close 2024 with growth of 2.43%. A week ago, the expectation was 2.23%; and a month ago, 2.19%. For 2025, the forecast is that GDP will close the year at 1.86%; and, for 2026, the projected growth is 2%.
In 2023, the Brazilian economy grew by 2.9%, a percentage above projections. According to the IBGE, the total value of GDP was R$10.9 trillion. In 2022, the growth rate was 3%.
Inflation
The financial market’s forecast for the Broad National Consumer Price Index (IPCA), considered the country’s official inflation rate, has increased for the sixth consecutive week. A week ago, the market was projecting inflation of 4.22% in 2024. This week, the expectation was slightly higher, at 4.25%. Four weeks ago, the market was projecting an IPCA of 4.1%.
The estimate for the current year is above the inflation target, which is 3%. However, it is within the tolerance margin, which is 1.5 percentage points above or below. Therefore, the lower limit is 1.5%; and the upper limit is 4.5%.
For the coming years, inflation is expected to close at 3.93% in 2025. For 2026, the IPCA is expected to be 3.6%.
Dollar and Selic
The expectation regarding the exchange rate is that the US dollar will close 2024 at R$5.32. A week ago, the market projected that the dollar would end the year at R$5.31; and 4 weeks ago, at R$5.30. For 2025, the US currency is expected to be quoted at R$5.30; and in 2026, at R$5.25.
Regarding the Selic rate, the market maintains stable expectations, both for 2024 (10.5%), 2025 (10%) and 2026 (9.5%).
