The 1% drop in retail sales in June this year, compared to May, interrupted five consecutive months of growth in the sector. The decline also came after retail sales reached a record level in the previous month, according to data released this Wednesday (14) by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
This was the biggest drop since May 2023, when it also fell 1%. Despite the result, the sector accumulated a gain of 4.7% compared to December last year. In the accumulated half-year, compared to the same period last year, the increase reached 5.2%.
“Just to give you an idea, 2023 closed with a growth of 1.7%. So we have a first half of the year [de 2024] which, despite the drop in the margin from May to June, has a growth of 5.2%, much higher than the entire growth of 2023”, explains IBGE researcher Cristiano Santos.
According to Santos, the drop from May to June can be explained as an accommodation after consecutive increases, which placed retail at a high level, in historical terms.
The main reason for the negative retail result in June was the hypermarket, supermarket, food products, beverages and tobacco sectors, which fell 2.1% compared to May. The drop in this activity, according to Santos, can also be attributed to the high comparison base of the previous month, a month in which supermarket sales reached a record level.
He points out, however, that there may also have been an impact of inflation on food purchases. “Despite there having been a slowdown from May to June in the general IPCA [índice que mede a inflação oficial]home-cooked meals were the sector that contributed the most to inflation,” he highlights.
The Broad National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) rose from 0.46% in May to 0.21% in June. Food and beverages, with a price increase of 0.44% in June, accounted for almost half of the month’s 0.21% inflation.
In addition to supermarket activity, other personal and household items also saw declines (-1.8%), fabrics, clothing and footwear (-0.9%) and books, newspapers, magazines and stationery (-0.3%).
However, four activities saw increases: fuels and lubricants (0.6%), office, IT and communication equipment and materials (1.2%), pharmaceutical, medical, orthopedic and perfumery articles (1.8%) and furniture and household appliances (2.6%).
Rio Grande do Sul
In Rio Grande do Sul, retail trade increased by 1.8% from May to June, second only to the state of Paraíba (2.4%). In May, despite the rain, the state had already shown the same growth rate compared to April (1.8%).
The biggest difference was observed in expanded retail, which also includes vehicles and construction materials. While in May, the sector had fallen by 2.8%, in June it rose by 13.8%, almost triple that of the second-placed state, Mato Grosso (4.8%), and more than 30 times the national average (0.4%).
“The new fact is the resumption of activity in vehicles, motorcycles, parts and pieces, which had been significantly affected in May,” says Santos.
