Maduro, increasingly isolated

The Nicolás Maduro regime in Venezuela is increasingly isolated due to mounting internal and external pressures, which have not ceased since the controversial elections of July 28.

The opposition, led by Maria Corina Machado, has stepped up its presence on the streets, calling for a large “protest for the truth” next Saturday in support of its claim to have won with nearly 70% of the votes, supported by the records it managed to obtain after the vote. This mobilization continues to gain followers, fueled by popular discontent towards a government that no longer seems to have the capacity to silence its critics.

Meanwhile, on the international stage, the United States and the European Union have decided to turn their backs on Maduro, ignoring the official election results and demanding the presentation of the minutes of the vote. Some governments have even suggested offering Maduro a safe passage to leave the country, with the president of Panama leading this offer by proposing temporary asylum. Neighbouring countries, which have welcomed millions of Venezuelans fleeing the economic and social collapse, are also losing patience and are no longer willing to bear the migratory burden if the regime persists.

The Chavista repressive apparatus has tried to contain the protests, as it has done repeatedly throughout more than two decades in power. In the last two weeks, more than 2,200 people have been arrested for participating in post-election protests, being branded “terrorists” by Maduro, who accuses former candidate Edmundo González and Machado of instigating these demonstrations.

Despite this, they have not been able, or have not dared, to stop María Corina Machado herself, who continues to attract crowds with her fiery speeches, such as “we have the records in our hands, we will not let ourselves be robbed” and “the whole world calls him (Maduro) by his name: dictator.” In the midst of a deep economic and political crisis, Machado has managed to channel popular frustration into a movement that demands dignity, sovereignty and freedom.

What distinguishes these protests from previous ones is the visible weakness of the two pillars of the regime: Maduro and the military man Diosdado Cabello. The military presence in the streets is less, or perhaps they are more focused on protecting the Miraflores Palace, the seat of executive power. Opposition leaders have made direct calls to the military and police to “stand on the side of the people,” which has earned them an investigation by the Public Ministry on charges of instigating insurrection.

On the international level, Maduro is increasingly cornered, depending solely on the support of his unconditional allies: Bolivia, Cuba and Nicaragua, nations that, however, have limited weight on the global scene. In an attempt to find support, he has sought to open channels of communication with Brazil, Mexico and Colombia, countries that, despite their history of being favourable to Chavismo, consider it essential that the National Electoral Council present the results broken down by voting table and allow for impartial verification.

The stance of Presidents Lula, López Obrador and Petro will be crucial to Maduro’s future. While it is possible that the dictator will cling to power and avoid a democratic transition on January 10, 2025, it is clear that Venezuela has reached a tipping point. All indications are that Maduro’s days in power are numbered.