HAVANA, Cuba – I had some hope until the announcement, but knowing how hard it is for dictators to let go of power or acknowledge defeat, I prepared myself for the scoundrelI spent all day and night on Sunday checking the press and social media pages that reported minute by minute the events in Venezuela and, given the shamelessness shown by the media of Chavismo and its allies — including those of the Cuban regime — it was certain that the elections would be stolen, that the coup was more than planned in the same style as the bunglers here, as if trained in the same little school.
Congratulatory messages between Chavistas hours before the results, including “Madurito” on his X account; a ballot scandalously designed for fraud; denial of participation to observers invited by the opposition in clear violation of the Barbados Agreement; hundreds of irregularities reported in the voting centers before, during and after the contest; the handsome guys from the “collectives” unleashed in the streets as a carbon copy of the intimidation tactics of the “insurers” here; early celebrations even in the very “situation room” where the screens showed that Edmundo González was winning by a wide margin Nicolas Maduroand so on to infinity and beyond in a carnival of impudence that included, without a doubt, the threatening positioning of A Russian flotilla in the port of Havana Maybe just in case it was (and is) necessary that “bloodbath” which made Lula nervous in Brazil.
And there is no one better than an old “unconditional” and intimate of the totalitarian regimes of the region to know how crazy and bloody they could become when they feel cornered and at the same time supported by Moscow, who would like to shift the focus of attention to this side at least for a while, although in reality these “Olympic” days —when everyone is busy trying to improve their medal standings and the “scandalous” opening ceremony in Paris—, they are the best at flying freely under the radar of the mainstream media.
In a way, this “sporting break” will end up favoring Maduro and what happens in these days, unfortunately, will not have the international repercussions that it should, and that could help legitimize the fraud, something that has undoubtedly been in the plans.
The plans, given the way they have been developed, smell too much like they were “forged in Havana” to many who know about these relations, especially when, judging by the faces seen in the Cuban Television reports, a few people from here who are well versed in these tricks of misinforming, intimidating and, above all, making noise, have been flying to Caracas in a hurry, something that is becoming less spontaneous every day due to Maduro’s growing unpopularity, even within the forces of Chavismo (and even Castroism), as can be seen in the most recent calls for mobilizations, even in the overly “diplomatic” tone of the messages of support for Caracas. The “congratulations” are no longer what they were before.
I have heard of some people here who, although they have not been able to refuse to travel to Venezuela —because in large part their “job” is to say yes— have at least come up with excuses for not doing so, especially these days when they know that the Chavista regime is in need of “brute force.” Others, desperate, have ended up signing up for economic reasons —this “subliminal” blackmail rarely fails—, but they are clear about which direction to flee or which flag to wave if the situation gets out of control.
But, in addition to the “mobilizations,” there is too much of an atmosphere of “security” among the leaders here, for whom Chavismo, although too “matured,” almost rotten, is more useful alive than dead (although a corpse will also be useful to them, after all, where there is nothing, everything is useful).
They seem sure of the burning powder keg, as if they knew that in a few days the situation will calm down and that there will possibly be “Madurism” for a long time because populism is not easily finished off by force of ballot boxes. This is pure illusion that only serves to expose them once again as a source of scandal and so on ad infinitum, which even works as a pretext for them to play the role of victim so dear to the left and so perfect for justifying violence.
Thus, the hope of many, including the one writing these lines, was that Venezuelan miracle would perhaps come to, even as an exception, show that the path of dialogue with the dictatorship is possible. Because in this way, and only to a certain point, it could serve in the Cuban case where not even in matters of manipulated elections have they allowed us to go so far, so “close” to change as the Venezuelans were.
Sunday’s experience leaves much disappointment, but also enough lessons to finally understand how much illusions can do and how much they weaken us in the face of harsh reality. We know how much one regime depends on the other, but the fall of one does not contain the formula for the overthrow of the other nor the assurance that it will happen. Nor can what happened serve to convince us that everything we do in pursuit of political change is in vain. Worse than any fraud or defeat is to sit back and do nothing.
OPINION ARTICLE
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