“This third legislative period brings a series of challenges and opportunities for the government and Congress. With an ambitious reform agenda, the government will have to navigate a complex political climate and seek to maintain legislative effectiveness in a scenario where building majorities has become more fragmented and difficult.“, it states Maria Jimena Escandon, lawyer, analyst and partner at Orza.
Data provided by Sonar, a legislative monitoring tool from the firm Orza, They show that the last three governments have tended to decrease their rate of legislative effectiveness between the second and third legislature.In this case, although the new Minister of the Interior, Juan Fernando Cristo, will seek to oxygenate the relationship with the legislature, the trend suggests that Petro’s government will have to prioritize some agendas over others.
(You may be interested in: Risk Management Scandal Puts a Stumbling Block in the Government’s Economic Agenda).
Escandón believes that the Government will have to find spaces to process an ambitious agenda of projects. Among the announcements made are the filing of a new health reform, a tax reform, the reform of the public services law and a new mining law. In addition, the project that defines the procedures of the agrarian and rural jurisdiction. The general budget project and the biennial budget of royalties will also be processed.
If the government wants to implement the ‘fast track’ proposal, it must submit a Legislative Act Project to enable the mechanism, which means that it must at least complete the first round (first four debates) in this legislature. Regarding the outlook for this legislative period, Juliana Ocampo, lawyer, political analyst and partner at Orza, says that spaces must be found for the projects that the government managed to save from the archives in the last legislature..
Gustavo Petro at the opening of Congress.
At the moment, There are at least six projects that must be approved in the three remaining debates in this legislature so that they are not archived.. In addition, there is pressure to ensure that new bills submitted must be debated first to avoid being shelved when the legislative session ends. Priority may be given to processing social reforms.
For example, it is not ruled out that the new version of the health reform will be filed with an urgent message, a resource that the government will use to speed up the processing of the projects. In addition, the recent ministerial shake-up does not point to the construction of a clear political coalition that could mean a new honeymoon with the legislature. A drastic increase in the rate of legislative effectiveness would be accompanied by a significant moderation of government projects..
What will the Government focus on?
The first legislative period will focus on social reforms and the Fast Track project. The second period, in 2025, although the discussion of reforms will continue, It will be marked by the start of the electoral campaign and the discussion on a possible Constituent Assembly.
(Besides: Forced investments in Colombia: in which sectors could the Government influence?).
The government’s legislative agenda has created a traffic jam that adds pressure for congressmen, he explains. Maria Jimena Escandonwho will seek collaboration so that their projects do not stagnate, but it also limits the window of opportunity to approve all the priority agendas. However, the Constituent Assembly initiative seems more rhetorical than politically viable, since it is still unclear how it will be implemented within the constitutional framework.
With the current rules of the game, both the ‘fast track’ and the constituent Assembly would have to go through Congress and would be subject to the control of the Constitutional court.
President Gustavo Petro led the installation of Congress in his third legislative year.
There is still a lot of pending issue
In the Senate they continue with life 137 Bills (PL)which are in different stages of the legislative process, while in the House there are 182 PLs. Of this universe, only 12 are ready for their last fourth debate.
(Can read: Government will not submit a statutory bill to reform the education system).
In detail, Sonar reveals that in the Chamber, the Sixth Commission has 49 projects out of 182 (26.92%); followed by the Third with 36 projects (19.78%) and the Seventh with 28 projects (15.38%). In the Senate, the Sexta also concentrates the largest number of projects with 53 of 126 (42.06%).
For Juliana Ocampo, the legislative load, which is usually lower in this third legislature, is high and ambitious, since, in addition to the 137 PL that come previously, it is expected that approximately 600 projects will be filed, generating more congestion in the legislature, challenging efficiency within Congress.
The installation speech
In his speech at the installation of the third legislature, The president, in a moderate and conciliatory tone, apologized to Congress for the corruption problems at UNGRDHowever, this scandal will continue to tarnish her administration, testing the independence of the Attorney General and giving the opposition ammunition for its 2026 election campaign.
Congress of the republic
Additionally, He focused his speech on the need to change the country’s model, moving from an extractive approach to a productive one.He stressed the importance of a comprehensive agrarian reform to correct the unequal distribution of land and promote rural development. Tourism remains a pillar of its economic model, highlighting the importance of the construction of the ‘Coffee Airport’.
Peace is still the driving force behind his social reforms, Calling for national unity and agreement, as a prelude to a series of legislative projects that reflect an ambitious vision.
María Jimena Escandón says that these initiatives face challenges in their implementation. Systemic corruption and the size of the reforms could hinder the pace of their implementation. As for the transition to a new economic and energy model, the government requires a clear strategy with resources to make it effective, so it is important to know its proposal on economic reactivation.
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