After the adjustment in the prices of the fuels that the government decreed for February, now the Executive Branch must decide what will happen to the rates of Ancap in March. A priori, the international scene does not have good news. The upward trend in the price of oil —which gained strength at the beginning of the year is still present— and has now been exacerbated by the uncertainty surrounding the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, which has a large part of the international community on edge.
The dynamics of international crude oil prices end (sooner or later) in the prices of refined fuels from the US Gulf of Mexico Coast (USGC), which is the main input of the Import Parity Price (PPI) report that the Regulatory Unit for Energy and Water Services (Ursea) prepares every month.
On this occasion, the The government will evaluate the period between January 26 and February 25. A useful approximation is to see what has happened to the price of conventional gasoline during the first 20 days of the reference window that is currently open.
The latest data published by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) show that the prices for Uruguayan naphtha continued to rise. The average value per gallon as of February 14 is located at US$ 2.63, with an increase of 12.5%. compared to the average of the immediately preceding month. For Super 95 gasoline, the most consumed in the country, Ursea takes the average international price of two types of gasoline: CBOB Regular 87 and CBOB Premium 93.
dieselfor its part, has as a reference the price of Ultra Low Sulfur Diesel (ULSD 62). The closest possible update to what the PPI would indicate is 13.5% above the previous measurement. The average price per gallon was US$2.79 in the first three reference weeks.
Meanwhile, the price of Brent stood at around US$95 on Wednesday, after reaching a maximum of US$97 last Monday, according to data from the specialized portal Investing. So far in February, the price increase was 6% and in the accumulated annual rate it was almost 22%.
This will be the tenth time that the Executive Power must make a decision with the current PPI mechanism. In addition, March has as an extra ingredient that it coincides with the month in which the referendum that proposes to repeal 135 articles of the Urgent Consideration Law will be held.
The new price setting mechanism and the different application criteria that the Executive Power has had is one of the points most questioned by the opposition. In recent weeks, critics have pointed to the rise in tariffs since the launch of the PPI, although without mentioning the evolution of oil in the period.
After four months with frozen rates, in February the thrust of international oil prices was stronger and Ancap’s financial support was not enough to postpone again an increase that the PPI had indicated for several months before. Thus, with the price of Brent above US$90 and an increase of 15% in January the Executive Branch resolved a partial adjustment that resulted in $3 for all fuels.
From January 2021 to date, the price of Super 95 gasoline has increased by 25.8% per liter, and 50-S diesel has increased by 31%. In that period, the average price of oil went from US$55.3 in January 2021 to US$85.5, which was the average in January 2022.
According to data published by Ancap, the company discharged oil twice at its José Ignacio buoy with an agreed price of US$84 per barrel in both cases. In the shipment that arrived in December, he had paid US$74 per barrel.
Ancap numbers at the start of the year
According to information from Ancap, the stock of crude oil in its storage tanks accumulated in January was 8% lower in relation to the same month of 2021. Meanwhile, the number of barrels refined during this year was 5% lower than the same month last year. In January, Ancap’s 50-S diesel sales increased 4% in the year-on-year comparison, while Super and Premium gasolines did so by 12% and 48%, respectively.
For its part, sales in January of diesel to UTE increased by 18,400 cubic meters compared to the same month in 2021. Last month, Ancap sold 82,300 cubic meters of diesel to the energy entity for the generation of its thermal park.
