The two highest powers in Cuba are gather this Tuesday. While Parliament will discuss “the constitutional design of the State and elements of the Magna Carta” for two days, the Communist Party began its VI Plenum of the Central Committee focused on economic aspects. Both meetings take place a few days after Russia’s Deputy Prime Minister Dmitri Chernishenko, during his visit to Havana, suggested “some modifications” in the legislation before the country is fully incorporated into the “road map”. from Moscow.
The call to the plenary session was only disseminated in the official media this Monday, something that has made Cubans who know the importance of these meetings to define everything from economic policies to cultural guidelines suspicious. The haste of the meeting and the context of the serious crisis that the Island is experiencing, added to Chernishenko’s announcements, make it foreseeable that important announcements will emanate from this event.
Chaired by Miguel Díaz-Canel, the Party plenary session was attended as special guests by Vice Prime Ministers Ramiro Valdés and Ricardo Cabrisas –head of Foreign Trade and Foreign Investment– and the Minister of the Armed Forces, General Joaquín Quinta Solá, who also They will assess the “compliance” with the Government’s political and economic Guidelines and evaluate the role of the National Assembly and the Party. It was not announced, however, whether or not Raúl Castro will be at any of the sessions.
The Party will focus the conversation on the “assessments, criticisms and proposals” on the Cuban economy that have been received from 48,000 “nuclei” throughout the Island
Regarding the meetings of the National Assembly, the deputies will also discuss “the laws that regulate the operation of the different structures of Popular Power”, while the Party will focus the conversation on “assessments, criticisms and proposals” on the Cuban economy that have received from 48,000 “nuclei” throughout the Island.
The highlight, according to the official press, will be the discussion on the “development of the economy” and “the solution of economic problems (of) a high priority”, but little else has been said about this rendering of accounts.
The announcement of the meetings has been commented on Twitter by the Cuban economist Pedro Monreal, who asks Havana, above all, for “data instead of narrative” and suggests, before any analysis, to look at the “verifiable situation” as presented in May 2023. He criticizes that the Party plans to follow the dynamic of “counting ‘achievements'” by passing them off as achievements, and calls for “self-critical evaluation of the results”.
In addition, remember what the priorities were, at least on paper, during the “update” of the Guidelines in 2021: solving structural problems in the country and favoring the socialist state company; promote agricultural development; replace imports with local production, and that this is enough for an adequate flow of exports; boost tourism; achieve financial equilibrium and “improve consumption and the standard of living of the population”.
Regarding tourism, in 2022 the level of expected visitors was not reached either and the forecast had to be rectified on several occasions
The plan crashes against reality point by point, since the official sources themselves confirm –this same month– that 480 state companies (24% of the total) closed the previous year with losses. The profit on net sales of these same companies reached 17.2%, which represented a loss of 20,900 million pesos. As a consequence, in 2023 the State will have to spend 52,000 million in subsidies and another billion to correct the losses.
Regarding the structural problems, food and agriculture, it is evident, Monreal maintains, that the “food security crisis, instability and habitual deficit of the energy supply”, the “acute fuel crisis” and the failure to comply with the plan of exports ruins the government’s plan.
Regarding tourism, in 2022 the expected level of visitors was not reached either and the forecast had to be rectified on several occasions. Not to mention, Monreal points out, the low hotel occupancy rate, which also warns about the “absence of official data on the general level of foreign investment”, which the regime has stimulated with “fiscal and discriminatory advantages with respect to national capital”. .
Regarding the “consolidation” of the Ordering Task – another of the Party’s great objectives over the last two years -, Monreal details its “resounding failure”, since state workers are not “in better conditions”, as the Government promised in 2021. In addition, the Government abandoned two essential features of the Task: monetary and exchange unification, to lead to a “persistent macroeconomic imbalance with no solution in sight” and a growing dollarization of the economy.
Scientific and technological development also failed, a reality that eloquently demonstrates the fact that the State has only invested 0.7% of its budget in promoting the sector
There was also a failure in scientific and technological development, a reality that eloquently demonstrates the fact that the State has only invested 0.7% of its budget in promoting the sector in 2021 and 2022.
And, finally, the ruling is also evident in terms of social justice, improvements in consumption and an increase in the quality of life. “The absence of official data on levels of poverty and inequality fails to cover up the increase in these two dimensions of social exclusion,” comments Monreal, in addition to pointing out that the purchasing power of Cuban families has been drastically reduced in recent years.
The economist demands from Parliament and the Communist Party a clear analysis of all these factors to assess whether 2023 will be a “better year” for Cuba. “Another thing would be bland propaganda or incompetence,” he sums up.
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