The consultancy Nómade carried out a survey of voting intentions of presidential candidates from the main political parties in Uruguay. Tamara Samudio, a member of Nómade, presented the results on the program Nothing to lose of M24.
The survey revealed some surprises and confirmed the trends in the presidential race, in which the Broad Front seems to maintain the advantage which has been confirmed in the most recent surveys of other consultants.
Leaders in the Broad Front
In the Broad Front, a political party that ruled Uruguay for 15 years, Yamandú Orsi leads voter preferences with 17.2% mentions. Orsi is the mayor of Canelones, the second most populous department in the country, and has been noted for his management and leadership in the Broad Front.
In second place is Caroline Cosse, which has 11.2% of the mentions. Cosse is the current Minister of Industry, Energy and Mining, and she has gained popularity for her advocacy of progressive policies and her fight against social inequality.
However, in the Broad Front there are also mentions of Oscar Andradewith a 0.7% intention to vote, and that of Mario Bergara, with 0.6% support. Both are historical leaders of the Broad Front and have held important public positions in the past.
Orsi and Delgado are emerging as favorites for the next elections. While Orsi manages to summon the majority of votes in a more comprehensive vision of the left, Delgado assures that he “is not the right” of the National Party.
Preferences in the National Party
In the National Party, the figure of Alvaro Delgado leads the preferences with a 5.7% of support or intention to vote. Delgado is the current Secretary of the Presidency of the Republic and has stood out for his absolute loyalty next to Luis Lacalle Pou and for serving as a tacit unappointed spokesperson for this administration.
In second place is the figure of the president, Luis Lacalle Pou, with 5.3% of the mentions. Lacalle Pou, who assumed the presidency in March 2020, has faced various challenges in his government, such as the COVID-19 pandemic and the economic crisis. He cannot continue to command the government consecutively by constitutional order.
After them, the figure of Laura Raffo with 0.6% mentions. Raffo is a Uruguayan economist and politician who ran for mayor of Montevideo in the 2020 municipal elections, but was defeated by Caroline Cosse.
As for the “Colorado Party (PC) and Cabildo Abierto (CA) they are showing figures below half” of what they voted in the last electoral cycle, says the pollster. “In the case of the PC, a third of what they voted in 2019: CA had 11% and now the voting intentions are close to 5%, while in the PC, in October 2019 they voted 12% and now they are in 4%”.
Innovative methodological features
Before presenting the results, Samudio explained the innovative methodological characteristics of Nómade. The consultant uses a representative and stratified sample of the Uruguayan population, combining telephone and online interviews to ensure greater precision in the data.
In addition, Nómade uses big data analysis and modeling techniques to gain deeper and more detailed insight into voter preferences and behaviors.
