The Construction Confidence Index (ICST) did not change in March and remained at 94.4 points, a level of moderate pessimism. In quarterly moving averages, the index fell by 0.3 points. It was released this Tuesday (28), in Rio de Janeiro, by the Brazilian Institute of Economics of the Getulio Vargas Foundation (Ibre/FGV).
According to the coordinator of Construction Projects at Ibre/FGV, Ana Maria Castelo, for the second month, the outlook for demand in the coming months has improved. She highlighted that a more negative perception about the trend of the business environment contaminated the expectations indicator, which closed the first quarter without recovering the recent fall, pointing to moderate pessimism in the sector.
“As already observed in February, the pace of activity signals a slowdown – the recent evolution indicator ended the quarter in a downward trend. Thus, companies also indicate a lower intention to hire. However, the limitation given by the difficulties in hiring qualified labor has been increasing and reached the highest level of marks since March 2015, a sign that the growth cycle has not been reversed”, evaluated, in a note, Ana Maria.
opposite variations
According to the FGV, the stability of the index results from the opposite variations of the two components of the index. “The Current Situation Index of the Construction Confidence Index (ISA-CST) rose 0.3 points to 93.7 points, after four straight months of decline. The increase in the ISA-CST is exclusively due to the improvement in the perception of entrepreneurs regarding the current business situation indicator, which increased by 0.5 points, to 92.2 points. The contract portfolio indicator remained stable, changing -0.1 point to 95.2 points, the lowest level since March last year (94.4 points)”, informs the study.
The Expectations Index (EI-CST) dropped 0.3 points to 95.3 points, remaining relatively stable after the increase registered in the previous month. The drop in the IE-CST was influenced by the indicator that measures the business trend for the next few months, which dropped 1.4 points to 92.3 points. The forecast demand indicator rose 0.9 points, reaching 98.3 points.
The Construction Capacity Utilization Level (Nuci) increased by 0.2 percentage points (pp), to 77.9%. The Nuci of Manpower was stable with a variation of -0.1 pp, to 78.9%, while the Nuci of Machines and Equipment rose 1.7 pp, to 73.6%.
access to credit
For 2023, the financial market projected a drop in the granting of housing loans. “Higher rates and stricter contracting conditions represent a more adverse environment for buyers and companies. In the last two months, in fact, there has been a small increase in the number of comments regarding access to bank credit as a factor limiting business, but still far from configuring a threat to the recent business cycle”, informed Ibre/FGV.
