In the midst of a complex international environment and a panorama of slowdown, added to the strong internal conflict and the two-way signals about the signing of new contracts for oil explorationthe prospects for this industry suggest that 2023 will clearly be a year of contraction or decrease, a term coined by the Minister of Mines and Energy, Irene Vélez.
Indeed, yesterday the Chamber of Oil Services (Campetrol)a union of firms that are in the areas where oil is sought and produced, projected that the main indicators of the sector will have a year of decline.
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Starting with the price of oil Brentreference for Colombiawhose price for which an average oil price of 85.1 dollars a barrel, what it would imply a reduction of 15.6% beefprice at 2022 pricedue to factors such as the increasing probability of a global economic crisis, but also with upward factors such as the reopening of China and production cuts Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec).
Meanwhile, regarding the level of crude oil extraction, Campetrol estimated that the current year will close with an average of 735,000 barrels per day as a monthly averagethat is, 2.5% less than that registered in 2022, due, in part, to public order situations and the uncertainty of public policy in the country.
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And when analyzing the projections on the growth of the GDP of the oil industry in the country during this year, Campetrol emphasizes that “could enter a downward path during 2023, reaching a growth rate of -3.9%, as a result of the decrease in crude oil production in the country”.
The figure would imply a significant change from the 2.6% variation observed in 2022, and could even have a larger gap, since the range for this projection that the union has is between -3.2% and -5.7%.
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And he adds that, as a consequence of the reduction in production and the downward trend in the price of oil, it is feasible that exports will be reduced by 23% with respect to the value exported in the year 2022, which indicates that its amount would end this year at about 14.7 billion dollars, that is, 4.4 billion dollars below the 19.1 billion observed in 2022.
“In the year 2022, 19,000 million dollars in exports of oil and its derivatives were sold, but in January 2023, exports showed a drop of 19.2% compared to the same period in 2022”, assured the Campetrol president, Nelson Castañeda.
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And he added that lower investment levels could mean decreases in active rigs. (maintenance and drilling) and therefore lower levels of oil exploration and production.
According to the union leader, although the government is betting on the energy transition, Natural resources must continue to be extracted in order to finance the country’s social projects.
Castañeda also stressed that this industry, which generates around 650,000 direct and indirect jobs throughout the country, is currently facing a period of both internal and external volatility.
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