He north of the province of Buenos Aires and most of the surface of Santa Fe and Entre Rios These are the areas that are most affected by the lack of rain and the heat wave that affects the country, with a direct impact on the development of soybeans and corn, whose yields are being defined.
According to a report by the Agricultural Estimates Department of the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange (BCBA), these regions face “depleted water reserves and above-average temperatures, while a large part of the soybean and late-season and second-grade corn area is in critical stages for the definition of yields”.
During the last week, the Buenos Aires stock exchange made in the case of soybeans, a new cut of 4.5 million tons in the national production estimate, by reducing it from 33.5 to 29 million tons.
In the case of corn, the cut was 3.5 millionfrom 41 million to 37.5 million tons.
The BCBA explained that in the three aforementioned provinces the expected yields of soybeans and corn “reflect the consequences of the adverse conditions of recent months.”
“In comparative terms with the average of the last five campaigns, soybean yields would be 46% below in the province of Santa Fe, a decrease of 36% in the north of Buenos Aires and a drop of 50% in Entre Rivers” compared to the average of the last five campaigns, the report pointed out.
In parallel, in corn, yield losses of 47%, 28% and 45% are expected over Santa Fe, the north of Buenos Aires and Entre Ríos respectively, compared to the average yield during the same period.
Even -the work of the BCBA pointed out- yield losses are expected above those registered during the 2008/09 drought, a campaign during which the national yields of both soybeans and corn were close to the historical minimums of the last 20 years.
Regarding area losses, low performance expectations could leave “a significant proportion of the planted area without harvesting since they will not cover the costs of the work”.
The largest percentage increases in area loss with respect to the average of the last 5 years are expected in the province of Santa Fe and the north of Buenos Aires, where almost 20% of the area planted with soybeans would not be harvested, being second-tier plantations. the most affected.
In the case of corn, said percentage would be close to 8% of the planted area, reported the entity.
For his part, The Rosario Stock Exchange (BCR) also made severe adjustments in the production forecast for the soybean and corn harvestwith cuts compared to last month’s estimates of 7.5 million tons in both crops, to place them at 27 and 35 million tons respectively, which implies a a 45% drop in the oilseed harvest expectations and a 35% drop in the case of corn.
In a report on the so-called core agricultural zone, which includes the north of Buenos Aires and the center-south of Córdoba and Santa Fe, the BCR estimated that losses per hectare for prime soybeans could range from US$600 to US$1,300 per hectare, while that in late corn these losses would be between US$700 and US$1,500 per hectare.
The work indicated that in the last week, “lots of prime soybeans between bad and regular conditions increased 10 percentage points and extend over 85% of the area.”
“The expectation in the region’s average yield continues to falter: the 20 quintals per hectare (qq/ha) are beginning to fall behind as a representative average for the region, even though the figure already means a damage of 50 to 60% of the potential of the area (40 to 50 qq/ha)”, indicated the BCR.
In this sense, “The high temperatures and the lack of water have taken away the soybeans, shortening the filling of grains for which they estimate to start the harvest from March 15”.
As for corn, 50% of the late plantings “are in poor condition and with a yield expectation of 48 qq/ha, the tenants will have to face a loss of US$ 681 per hectare, but when the productivity of the plot is null, the discounts reach US$1,536 per hectare”.
