After the exchange rate broke 18 unitsthe following technical support for the parity is 17.70 pesos per dollarassured Karina Ávila, investment analyst at Citibanamex.
Carlos Krestchner, director of financial markets at Intercam, assured that this level could be reached in the following days.
In a panel on technical analysis perspectives, which took place within the framework of the AMIB Analysis Meeting, the analyst commented that “after this break of 18, the next floor area could be around 17.70”.
“Yes, I would stay with the 50% correction of the Fibonacci retracement, which would take us to minimum levels of 17.70, which is an important support area,” said the analyst.
For his part, Jorge Herrera, Apalache technical analyst, commented that from his perspective, technical support for the exchange rate is in a range between 17.70 and 17.14 units.
“It should be noted that this floor (of 17.14 units) was registered in July 2017, so we consider that before having a technical rebound, it may be falling towards those levels,” he assured.
Dollar would touch a minimum of 17.70 in the following days
In an interview during the AMIB event, the general director of financial markets at Intercam, Carlos Kretschmer, assured that all the factors that affect the exchange movement are in favor of the peso continuing to appreciate”.
If you look at the peso, it has appreciated practically from 19.80 to 18.00 pesos (…) in three months. It’s a brutal move, it’s a 10 percent appreciation. So at that rate, at 17.70 we are days away from seeing it, ”he assured.
The former director of Quanta Shares, an operator of peso-dollar and dollar-peso ETFs, assured that economic conditions, control of public finances, nearshoring, remittances that continue to grow, as well as exports that continue to be robust, are the factors that lead us to think that the peso will remain strong in the following months.
He explained that even the banks have substantially increased their deposits in dollars, “which means that the same Mexican companies have excess dollars”, thanks to the fact that they are being very successful in their exports.
“So I can tell you that in all areas, you can imagine, the peso seems to continue strong for at least several months,” he added.
In addition, the former director of Quanta Shares explained that in the dynamics of the ETF operator’s products, some investors have already begun to accumulate positions in the trac dollar, that is, they expect the peso to depreciate.
Although, he assured, “others are still relatively comfortable in the trac peso,” that is, they are betting that the Mexican currency will continue to appreciate.
“Clearly those of the trac weight are winning because the peso has appreciated. But we do see a relatively even interest between those who want to buy the trac dollar -who have not done so because they do not believe that it is the optimal moment to hedge or to buy- and those of the trac peso, who still do not know if it is time to sell or stay,” he said.
