A week after the restart of the legislative work in the National Congress, the political fragmentation experienced both in the ruling party and in the opposition warns of the emergence of a complex period, where the right will have to put aside their differences to be able to align themselves behind the brake on some of the emblematic reforms of the Government program, which are continuing their course in the Chamber of Deputies and Deputies, such as the reform of the pension system and of 40 weekly working hours. In addition, the tax reform project that probably causes even more resistance, both in the business sector and in the hard right.
In this regard, in the heat of the elections for Constitutional Councilors, the Republican Party has made the decision to entrench itself and speak directly to its electorate, betting on a language that makes sense to what many call the “extreme right.” Experts agree that in this new constituent process, the Republican strategy would involve recovering a sector of the center-right electorate that could eventually be disappointed in the role of Chile Vamos at this stage. From the store founded by the former candidate for the Presidency, José Antonio Kast, they would seek to interpret that sector of the right that is not in favor of a new Constitution, neither in this nor under any circumstances, and that could be the differentiating element to distance themselves. of the path initiated by the parties of Chile Vamos (UDI, RN and Evópoli).
In this sense, the academic from the University of Talca, Mauricio Morales, explained that the business of Republicans is precisely to occupy the most extreme political space of the ideological arc. “In other words, they are trying to win over and retain voters who are more far-right. It is a party that transmits intensity, and therefore, most likely, it is not necessarily aligned with Chile Vamos. In addition, Chile Vamos has totally different incentives: the aspiration of Chile Vamos is to conquer the voter of the center, but in this movement it could also lose voters of the center right, and Republicans can slip through there, from the radical right,” said the analyst.
In the same way, the columnist for The counter, Germán Silva Cuadra considered what the Republican Party is doing to be an “interesting movement of the pieces on the board”, which in his opinion is a sign of the reordering of the right-wing forces after the events of recent years, including the plebiscites of entry and exit, in addition to the failed constituent proposal. “I think that the Republicans are smart, by not giving in to pressure and agreeing with the PDG, with whom they had conversations. I think that in the end they chose to avoid that alliance, since it was better for the Republican Party to bet on its niche, which is a a more conservative space and that deals with tougher issues such as crime management and migration,” added Silva Cuadra.
Meanwhile, and regarding the strategy of the Republicans within the National Congress against the emblematic reforms of the Government, and its process that will have relevant milestones in the coming weeks, Mauricio Morales said that he has no doubt that the Republicans will propose an agenda obstructionist to the Government, so, in his opinion, the question is not whether Republicans join Chile Vamos, but rather whether Chile Vamos ends up joining Republicans. For the academic from the U. de Talca, the intense parties tend to drag down the moderate parties, and the right will be permanently in that fight, especially in view of the next election of constitutional councillors.
For their part, analysts agree that the electoral milestone of the next parliamentary elections to be held in November 2025 would be a key and determining factor in the organization and focus of the strategy that the Republican Party seeks to deploy. According to the above, Germán Silva Cuadra added that: “Today, the Republicans will increase the floor of 13 deputies that it currently has, which if it finally achieves, it will be at the expense of the UDI and a part of the RN, which was very close to the thinking of the Republican Party during the exit plebiscite, where it was a hard vote in favor of rejection. I think that in this new constituent process, they have to measure strength, and I think that was the bet. But my impression is that they they may be able to take away votes, especially from the UDI and from a more conservative sector of the RN. It seems to me that it is a cunning move”, he added.
Finally, Marco Moreno, director of the School of Government and Communications of the Central University, added that the Republican Party’s commitment will go to the side of installing a climate of polarization that enables a kind of institutional blockade, generating a climate that makes it more difficult reach consensus. In the analyst’s opinion, “if the parties are willing to defend a narrow set of postulates, which will not be accepted by political adversaries, the possibility of reaching parliamentary agreements decreases significantly. Government management is paralyzed and the most serious problems The demands of the citizens are not addressed, increasing disapproval of the government. This is the electoral climate of polarization that Republicans are looking for in the face of the elections for Constitutional Councillors, but also of the plebiscite at the end of the year. This strategy involves dragging the opposition to a confrontation in the government versus opposition cleavage”.
