The National Government presented the project of budget addition to allocate an additional $25 billion to issues such as health and agriculture. To do this, the Ministry of Finance carried out a recomposition of spending, so that the $18.3 billion will no longer come out of the General Budget of the Nation to pay the Fuel Price Stabilization Fund (Fepc). That frees up that balance so that the Treasury can allocate it to other items.
With this change, the payment of the deficit “it will be done through a direct compensation between the Nation and Ecopetrol against the dividends generated by this company that are property of the Nation”. This means that the dividends will cover the debt.
During the past year, the differential compensated by the Fund reached $36.2 trillion, according to the calculations of the Ministry of Finance, similar to the estimate of the Autonomous Committee of the Fiscal Rule (Carf). However, of that amount, $18.3 billion have already been transferred, with which this year $25.8 billion will have to be paid.
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Andrés Velasco, CARF’s technical director, pointed out that Ecopetrol’s profits are expected to be $29 billion, which would completely settle the debt caused the previous year and would leave a remainder of about $3.2 billion to revolve around the Nation.
“In this way, dividends are not incorporated and what Ecopetrol has to turn is reduced. This year only the remainder would enter after the payment of the FEPC”, stated Velasco.
According to the articles filed in Congress for the addition, “The recomposition of financing sources and the reduction of some items, mainly the one destined to pay the FEPC deficit, make it possible to increase the spending destined to finance priorities of this government”.
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Ecopetrol will present its financial results on February 28, in which record figures are expected to be achieved and after which the figure that the Government will receive will be confirmed.
By 2023, the Treasury portfolio expects the FEPC deficit to be reduced, reaching up to $28 billion, thanks to the gradual increases in the price of gasoline and those that are expected to be made to diesel after half of the year.
In addition, it is expected that with the fall in oil prices, which for this year the International Energy Agency (IEA) expects to be US$84 per barrel, the differential of the internal price compared to the international parity price will be reduced.
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Velasco pointed out that this would make the deficit this year around between $28 and $30 billion, a reduction of between $6 and $8 billion compared to what was generated in 2022. This taking into account the macroeconomic assumptions of the Financial Plan.
However, Corficololombiana expects it to be $16.6 trillion, considering the evolution of oil and the exchange rate.
It should be remembered that 6 months of continuous increases in the price of gasoline have already been completed, which are expected to continue until the gap between the international and local prices is closed. However, in order not to affect inflation so strongly, the Acpm has not been adjusted. José Antonio Ocampo, Minister of Finance, indicated that it will be adjusted in the second semester.
DANIELA MORALES SOLER
Journalist Portfolio
