Exports will remain in 2023 as an engine of the Mexican economy, although with less strength than in 2022, according to forecasts by the Ministry of Finance and Public Credit (SHCP) and Banco Base.
Exports represent 40.36% of aggregate demand and are the main source of economic growth in Mexico. Exports generate a multiplier effect on the economy, since to grow they need the support of other sectors that provide them with inputs, they also generate job creation and gross fixed capital formation.
In 2022, Mexican exports of products totaled 578,193.4 million dollars in 2022, an interannual increase of 16.9%, while Mexico’s GDP growth was 3%, according to preliminary figures.
By 2023, Banco Base projects that exports will register an annual growth of 7.0% compared to 2022, while Mexico’s GDP would grow 1.7%. In this context, the SHCP considers that Mexico will be favored by external factors given the close commercial integration that exists with the global economy and with the United States in particular.
Therefore, a positive performance is expected for exports, particularly for transportation equipment, electronic devices, non-oil mining, processed foods, and electronic commerce.
At the same time, recent investments by various companies to locate in Mexico support the country’s greater capacity to increase that export.
Another factor that could occur is the resolution of geopolitical conflicts and trade tensions, particularly between Russia and Ukraine, as well as the removal of economic sanctions and export restrictions with less uncertainty and volatility in asset and commodity prices.
The growth of exports maintains a close relationship with the arrival of direct foreign investment in Mexico, with job creation and with changes in productivity.
However, sustaining an economy based on exports represents a double-edged sword, especially when they have a single economy as their main destination, as is the case of Mexico with the United States.
