On average, each day in 2022, close to US$26 million in remittances from abroad arrived in the country, a record figure for the eighth consecutive year, which means that the country received a total of US$9,427 million.
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The data represented an increase of 9.7% compared to 2021 when the figure amounted to US$8,595 millionand compared to a decade ago, it meant an increase of 137%, which indicated the dynamism of these resources, which are mostly Colombian labor income.
The impact of these resources has been analyzed in various studies that have shown the social and economic impact they represent for various regions of the country.
And precisely, in the last decade, the income of these resources reached US$66.650 million, according to the records of the Banco de la República.
Reviewing the figures, during October, the month in which there was a strong devaluation of the peso against the dollar, since This reached close to $5,000, It was the one that registered the highest inflow of remittances, with US$894 million, that is to say that in that period alone those resources could have represented close to $4.5 trillion.
In contrast, the month of February was when fewer remittances entered the country last year, and the record was US$647 million.
In December, Colombians abroad sent US$849 millionwhich was the third highest record in 2022.
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A few weeks ago, the Banco de la República presented the report on remittances arriving in Colombia from the exchange balance, and in it the figure for last year amounted to US$10,981 million.
As in all economic phenomena there are cycles, that of the good run that these resources have registered, some consider that they could, although they do not fall, yes moderate their growth, although others say they will remain high.
This, based on the latest announcements of a possible slowdown in countries like the United States, where more than 50% of these incomes come from. Diego Rodríguez, managing director of Bosk Capital, affirms that in theory remittances should slow down, but in practice “I think the boom in remittances to Colombia will continue. We will continue to grow on that front.”.
He believes that despite a possible slowdown, employment in the US and Europe remains strong. Especially the one related to services.
Another factor that he mentions is that the price of the dollar makes temporary jobs very attractive. “The minimum wage in the US is around $4,000 a month. With this, a person goes and works in a trade for 3 to 6 months and generates a much higher income.”, he assures.
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Additionally, he said that “the immigration part for temporary jobs is open and is an option, without counting the option that some take to do it without documentation. This flow of resources is inflationary, the high dollar boosts it and it is difficult to control via interest rates”.
For his part, Juan David Ballén, head of Economic Research at the firm Casa de Bolsa, ensures that developed economies, starting with the US and passing through Europe, which is where the largest amount of remittances comes from, they will present lower economic growth than in 2022.
So, “It is to be expected that unemployment will not continue to decrease or eventually rise, which would end up influencing a lower inflow of remittances to our country. Due to the above, this year lower economic growth is also expected in Colombia since a lower inflow of remittances would cool down household consumption a bit.”, assures Ballén.
For his part, Sergio Olarte, Chief Economist at Scotiabank Colpatria, considers that “in any case there is a space for workers’ remittances to continue reaching the Colombian economy, since that part of unskilled work that continues to be in significant demand in that country is the one that sends the most resources to Colombia” .
The Scotiabank Colpatria analyst He anticipated that for this year the figure for this concept could easily exceed US$10,000 million and even US$11,000 million.
The largest migratory registry for Colombians is the United States, which is why the largest amount of remittance money comes from there, followed by Spain, country that 15 years ago began to show the arrival of thousands of Colombiansattracted by the language and high income.
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A recent analysis of Bank W, which mobilizes a significant amount of remittances, He said that by 2023 a significant impact is expected in the sending of these resources to the country, as a result of factors abroad such as the increase in rates, the economic contraction (or very low growth) and the possible increase in unemployment.
“All the above factors and adding the results of the economy in Colombia, generates a space for reflection in those who receive this money so that they can save it for the future.“, He says.
HOLMAN RODRIGUEZ MARTINEZ
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