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January 31, 2022
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eradication goal

Gustavo Volmar

The transformation of COVID-19 from its current pandemic status to an endemic status, which is expected to happen soon, will unleash economic forces that will help it continue among human beings indefinitely, just as it has happened with other viruses whose existence we consider normal.

From a psychological point of view, allowing the virus to assume an endemic character could be seen as giving in. It looks as if instead of fighting it until we defeat it, we resign ourselves to living with it, keeping ourselves fearful that it may resurface at the most unexpected moment.

Eradicating a communicable disease is not, in principle, impossible to achieve. The most notorious example has been smallpox, formally declared eradicated in 1980 by the World Health Organization. If smallpox, caused by a virus, could be eliminated, it may be questioned whether the same could not be done with the COVID-19.

The decision to eradicate smallpox was aided by the absence of an effective treatment. Without medicines adequate, the economic cost of the disease, in terms of vaccination requirements and loss of life, apart from the visual impact of the symptoms, created favorable conditions for the conclusion of an international agreement with the purpose of definitively ending the threat. The stories of the devastating consequences that humanity suffered for centuries for this reason also helped, especially since some of the most dramatic documented episodes took place in European territory.

The feasibility of eradicating smallpox was facilitated because the globalization of our days was still in the future. A similar goal, in terms of COVID-19, would involve restrictions that would have a much higher economic cost, considered unjustifiable given the effects of the virus. It is more efficient to let it exist and protect ourselves against the possibility of contagion.

Doctor of Economics from Columbia University specialized in companies, markets, forecasts and risk.

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