The first Survey of Economic Expectations among Colombian analysts carried out monthly by Banco de la República showed that after a bad closing of 2022 in terms of inflation, with a closing above all forecasts, for 2023 the vision for this indicator is high.
(Read: Why 2023 would be a more complicated year than thought).
In addition, this year, sccording to various organizations, study centers and economists, there will be a slowdownin the best of cases and recessions in various countries, so this type of survey, among market agents, provides vital information for decision-making.
According to the survey that the Issuer carried out in recent days, theAnalysts consider that this year inflation will close at 8.63%. This data contrasts with the average figure they had given last December, when they considered that the indicator in 2023 would close at 7.74%.
That increase, according to analysts, was influenced by the figure of 13.12% with which inflation closed in 2022data that no analyst, study center, or academics had projected and that put the economic and monetary authorities (Banco de la República) on alert.
The survey showed that by 2024, the projection regarding the increase in the inflation indicator is 5.05%.
In monthly terms (January), the analysts consulted by the Banco de la República said they believe that the CPI could reach 1.61%.
(Also: Reasons why the Colombian peso strengthens against the dollar).
In any case, within the responses there were also considerations that given the strong inflation at the end of 2022, in January the data could even reach 2.2%.
Regarding expectations in terms of inflation without food, the estimates for all of 2023 by those consulted were 7.97%.
Dollar.
On the other hand, the projections on the behavior of the dollar give for a closing in January of $4,766, that is, $70 above the Representative Market Rate (official dollar) which for this Monday is $4,693.99.
Likewise, by the end of 2023, analysts estimate a closing of the Representative Market Rate of $4,717.
thinking about 2024the survey revealed that those consulted estimate a dollar closing at $4,547.
The survey of economic expectations of the Colombian central bank indicates that the vision of an intervention interest rate in the market for part of the entity of 10% at the end of this year.
You have to remember that the current monetary policy rate is 12% and the agents say that it will rise at the meeting at the end of January to 13% given the results of last year’s inflation.
(See: After doubling enrollment prices, the rise in 2023 would be stronger).
It must be remembered that in the last part of the year the Banco de la República released its forecasts, according to the expectations survey made to analysts, in which inflation would end 2022 at 12.2%but throughout 2023 it would begin to yield to close the year at 7.5%, however, these indicators are higher.
It should be noted that during 2022, historical levels of inflation were registered in the country with figures that placed it as the highest since 1999, that is, the highest of this 21st century.
an environment of Persistent inflation and high interest rates are two of the main factors that, according to various organizations, will lead to lower global economic growth.
Several even predict that a recession will occur in a third of the countries.
(See: The high cost of living is the biggest global risk in the short term).
The trend will occur, since the main world engines, United States, the European Union and China they will slow down, especially the first two and a slowdown in the Asian giant.
In the case of Colombia, various entities estimate GDP growth between zero and 2%.
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