The median of the forecasts of 11 analysts consulted by the Reuters agency estimated a 0.3% drop in GDP between October and December after the 0.4% contraction in the third quarter, according to seasonally adjusted figures.
For all of 2021, Latin America’s second largest economy would have rebounded 5.1%, after plummeting 8.5% in 2020, its worst performance since 1932 during the Great Depression.
For this year, survey participants projected an expansion of only 1.9%.
Analysts cited a cocktail of factors to explain the quarterly drop, including the drag on performance from the previous period, fallout from the pandemic, lower consumption due to high inflation, global bottlenecks and domestic policy decisions affecting the private investment climate. .
“A heterogeneous and disorderly recovery was characteristic of all of 2021. Falls followed by growth and then followed by falls were observed by sectors,” said Jesús López, analyst at Base financial group. “That was maintained until the end of last year and very likely we will see it in the first quarter of this year,” he added.
At an annual rate, the GDP would have registered an advance of 1.6% in the fourth quarter, compared to an expansion of 4.5% in original figures of the previous period, according to the survey.
The INEGI statistics institute will release the timely estimate of GDP for the fourth quarter of 2021 on Monday. The final revision will be released on February 25.
With information from Reuters
