The increase in tax collection and the drop in the expenditure forecast made the government raise the projection of the primary surplus in 2022. The estimate went from R$ 23.36 billion to R$ 34.14 billion.
The numbers appear in an extra version of the Revenue and Expense Assessment Report, a document that guides the execution of the Budget. Sent to the National Congress every two months, the report had an extemporaneous edition (out of the expected) in December to accommodate the difficulties in the Budget at the end of the year.
The primary surplus represents the difference between revenues and expenditures excluding interest payments on the public debt. The performance will be much better than the Budgetary Guidelines Law (LDO) of 2022, which stipulated a primary deficit of BRL 170.5 billion.
The edition of an extra report in December had been announced by the Treasury Secretary, Paulo Valle, at the end of last month?? According to the document released today, revenue estimates rose by BRL 6.264 billion, mainly driven by the collection of taxes linked to profit and revenues from concessions and privatizations, due to the payment of grants for hydroelectric plants that occurred at the end of this year.
The expenditure forecast fell by R$5.844 billion compared to the report presented in November. The main drops occurred in the estimate for subsidies and subsidies (-R$ 1.424 billion) and in discretionary expenses (-R$ 4.418 billion).
The drop in discretionary expenses occurred because they were reclassified to the obligatory expenses heading, such as the Paulo Gustavo Law, whose execution became mandatory after a decision by the Federal Supreme Court (STF), and expenses with the National Penitentiary Fund (Funpen) and the complementation of the Federal Government for the Severance Indemnity Fund (FGTS).
According to the deputy special secretary for the Treasury and Budget, Julio Alexandre, the constant changes in the scenario throughout the year led the economic team to revise the projections several times. “At the beginning of the year, the market estimated economic growth of 0.3%. The most up-to-date market projection is at 3%, ten times higher,” he says. He also cited extra expenses with Plano Safra and Proagro (+7.9 billion) and with Social Security expenses (+R$21 billion) compared to estimates at the beginning of the year.
Field of Mars
In the report released at the end of November, the Ministry of Economy had informed that the previous estimate of the primary surplus was conservative and would be updated upwards. At the time, the folder estimated that the positive result could reach BRL 38.7 billion??
The primary surplus forecast will only not be greater because of the agreement that extinguished the debt of around R$ 24 billion of the city of São Paulo with the Union in exchange for the extinction of the lawsuit that questions the Campo de Marte airport control, in the capital of São Paulo. Were it not for the agreement, the Central Government would have a primary surplus of around R$58.14 billion this year.
