The external accounts had a negative balance of just US$ 60 million in November, informed today (21) the Central Bank (BC). In the same month of 2021, the deficit had been US$ 8.509 billion in current transactions, which are purchases and sales of goods and services and income transfers from Brazil with other countries.
The difference in the interannual comparison is due to the balance of trade, which increased by US$ 7.5 billion, while deficits in services and primary income (profits and dividends) decreased by US$ 212 million and US$ 665 million, respectively.
The head of the BC’s Department of Statistics, Fernando Rocha, points out that the commercial result is the highest in the historical series for the months of November and was mainly responsible for the improvement in current transactions for the month. According to him, this is due to the increase in exports last month, which grew 39.3%, while imports grew only 3%.
“In the same month of November, imports were practically stopped while exports continued to grow”, he said, explaining that the result was specific in November, since, from January to November, exports and imports grew at similar levels, on average 21%. .
In 12 months, ending in November, the deficit in current transactions is US$ 52.357 billion, 2.78% of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP, sum of goods and services produced in the country), compared to a negative balance of US$ 60.805 billion (3.26% of GDP) in October 2022 and a deficit of US$47.511 billion (2.89% of GDP) in the equivalent period ended in November 2021.
In the accumulated result for the year, the deficit is US$ 44.616 billion, against a negative balance of US$ 38.617 billion from January to November 2021.
Trade balance and services
Goods exports totaled US$ 28.889 billion in November, an increase of 39.3% compared to the same month of 2021. Imports totaled US$ 23.749 billion, an increase of 3% compared to November last year. With these results, the trade balance closed with a surplus of US$ 5.140 billion last month, compared to a negative balance of US$ 2.333 billion in November 2021.
In line with the movement in foreign trade, the deficit in the services account (international travel, transport, equipment rental and insurance, among others) added up to US$ 2.549 billion in November, a reduction of 7.7% compared to the US$ 2.761 billion in the same month of 2021.
“As the service account also responds to the increased demand for services and imported products, with the heating up of the economy, it is natural that we would see a deficit”, said Rocha. Net expenses with transport totaled US$ 1.485 billion, compared to US$ 1.655 billion in November 2021, a 10% drop that also helps to explain the reduction in the services account.
In the case of international travel, following the trend of previous months, revenues from foreigners traveling to Brazil grew in the interannual comparison and reached US$ 443 million in November, against US$ 320 million in the same month of 2021. abroad went from US$ 618 million in November last year to US$ 1.084 billion in the same month of 2022.
As a result, the travel account closed the month with a deficit of US$ 641 million, compared to a deficit of US$ 298 million in November 2021, contributing to increase the negative balance in services. According to Rocha, in general, this account is even deficient and means that Brazilians who traveled abroad spent more than foreigners who came to Brazil.
The values continue to grow in the interannual comparison and represent different moments of the covid-19 pandemic. In November 2022, with a very open economy; and November 2021, still with restrictions imposed by the pandemic. Looking at month-to-month expenses, figures were around the US$ 600 million deficit in recent months, pointing to stability in international travel expenses.
According to Rocha, looking only at the expenses of Brazilians abroad, this stability is better defined, with expenses of around R$ 1.1 billion since March of this year. “It has recovered to the lowest levels during the pandemic, but has remained stable,” he said.
From March to November 2019, a similar period immediately pre-pandemic, average expenses were BRL 1.5 billion, 26% higher than the current ones. “It seems to be the activity in which the level of spending has not yet returned to pre-pandemic levels”, he added.
lace
In November, the deficit in primary income (profits and dividends, interest payments and salaries) reached US$ 2.955 billion, with a reduction of 18.4% compared to US$ 3.619 billion in the same month of 2021. Normally, this account is deficit, since there are more investments by foreigners in Brazil, who send profits abroad, than by Brazilians abroad.
The deficit reduction, according to Rocha, is due to the already quite high comparison base in 2021. “The economic activity of companies in the country, which has foreign capital, their profitability seems to have already recovered in 2021 [após a queda com a pandemia de covid-19]”, he explained.
In the case of profits and dividends associated with direct and portfolio investments, there was a deficit of US$ 2.310 billion in November this year, compared to that observed in November 2021, of US$ 2.904 billion, a reduction of 20.5%. Net interest expenses fell by 9.4%, from US$ 724 million to US$ 656 million.
The secondary income account (generated in one economy and distributed to another, such as donations and remittances of dollars, without counterpart services or goods) had a positive result of US$ 303 million, against US$ 205 million in November 2021.
Investments
Net inflows in direct investments in the country (IDP) totaled US$ 8.338 billion last month, against US$ 5.031 billion in November 2021 and are well distributed, whether by component, range of values and sectors in which these resources are being allocated . It is the best results since November 2019, that is, they already surpass the pre-pandemic period.
Last month, there were net inflows in capital participation of US$ 4.817 billion, such as the purchase of new companies and reinvestments of profits. Meanwhile, intercompany operations (such as loans from the headquarters abroad to the branch in Brazil) had a surplus of US$ 3.520 billion.
In the 12 months ended in November, the IDP totaled US$ 77.112 billion, corresponding to 4.09% of GDP, compared to US$ 73.805 billion (3.96% of GDP) in the previous month and US$ 52.721 billion (3. 2% of GDP) in November 2021.
For Rocha, the low deficit in current transactions and the high investments in the country demonstrate the solidity of the Brazilian external accounts. According to him, investments were significant throughout the year, with double-digit values, more than R$ 10 billion, as in February and April.
When the country registers a negative current account balance, it needs to cover the deficit with investments or loans abroad. The best form of financing the negative balance is the IDP, because the resources are invested in the productive sector and tend to be long-term investments. This month, until December 16th, the Central Bank has already accounted for R$ 3.343 billion in direct investments.
Portfolio investments in the domestic market totaled net inflows of US$3.542 billion in November 2022, comprising US$2.359 billion in investments in stocks and mutual funds and US$1.182 billion in debt securities.
The stock of international reserves reached US$ 331.505 billion in November, an increase of US$ 5.959 billion compared to the previous month. The result stemmed primarily from positive contributions from changes in parities, US$ 2.832 billion, and from prices, US$ 1.627 billion. Interest income totaled $573 million.
