The Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (Cepal) on Thursday designated Cuba as one of the countries in the region with the worst economic projection for 2023. With only 1.5% growth, the forecast of this United Nations organization The United Nations is not as optimistic as the Cuban government, which assured that next year the country’s GDP would grow by 3%.
ECLAC’s forecast represents, in itself, a decrease in its forecasts for Cuba: its last report, in October, had placed the increase in the island’s GDP at 1.8% for 2023. The regime’s analysts, of course, They dismissed this number.
Cuba is not the only country whose GDP will experience a decline next year. ECLAC has pointed out that a group of Latin American nations find themselves in a similar situation. The GDPs that will grow the least next year are, according to the organization, El Salvador (1.6%), Colombia (1.5%), Mexico (1.1%), Argentina (1%), Brazil (0. 9%), Haiti (-0.7%) and Chile (-1.1%).
ECLAC guaranteed that the economic slowdown in the region will deepen in 2023 and that the growth rate will be 1.3%, 0.1% less than the estimate last October. The regional GDP, he estimates, will close this year with an expansion of 3.7%, higher than the 3.6% forecast three months ago and far from the 6.7% registered in 2021.
According to ECLAC, the slowdown began in the second half of 2022 and reflects both “the exhaustion of the rebound effect in the 2021 recovery”
According to ECLAC, the slowdown began in the second half of 2022 and reflects both “the exhaustion of the rebound effect in the 2021 recovery” and “the effects of restrictive monetary policies, greater limitations on fiscal spending, lower levels of consumption and investment and the deterioration of the external context”.
“The monetary policy responses adopted worldwide, in a context of rising global inflation, have caused increases in financial volatility and risk aversion levels and, therefore, have induced lower capital flows to emerging economies “, indicated the institution.
In the Preliminary Balance of the Economies of Latin America and the Caribbean 2022 presented this Thursday, ECLAC points out, however, that “the reduction that is expected in global inflation for 2023 will tend to moderate the increases in the monetary policy rates of the major central banks.
The report also highlights that the process of recovery of the labor markets “has not made it possible to eliminate the traditional gaps between men and women” and that during 2022 “both an increase in informality and a fall in real wages have been observed”.
Indebtedness levels also continue to be high, “so it can be expected that fiscal space will continue to condition the course of public spending.”
“The risk of increased interest rates, currency depreciation and greater sovereign risk would make it difficult to finance government operations in 2023,” the agency added.
To avoid a new lost decade like the one observed during the 2014-2023 period, ECLAC calls for “innovative public policies in the productive, financial, commercial, social and care economy areas.”
“The risk of rising interest rates, currency depreciation and greater sovereign risk would make it difficult to finance government operations in 2023”
Venezuela (12%), Panama (8.4%) and Colombia (8%) will lead economic growth this year, followed by Uruguay (5.4%), the Dominican Republic (5.1%) and Argentina (4.9%). %), according to the report.
In the middle of the table are the Caribbean islands (4.5%, not counting Guyana, which is experiencing an oil boom), Costa Rica (4.4%), Honduras (4.2%), Guatemala (4% ), Nicaragua (3.8%), Bolivia (3.5%), Mexico (2.9%) and Brazil (2.9%).
In the tail are Ecuador (2.7%), Peru (2.7%), El Salvador (2.6%), Chile (2.3%), Cuba (2%), Paraguay (-0.3% ) and Haiti (-2%), according to the balance.
For 2023, Venezuela continues to lead the projections (5%), followed by the Dominican Republic (4.6%), Panama (4.2%), Paraguay (4%), the Caribbean islands (3.3%), Guatemala (3.2%), Uruguay (2.9%), Bolivia (2.9%), Honduras (2.7%), Costa Rica (2.6%), Peru (2.2%), Nicaragua ( 2.1%) and Ecuador (2%).
Along with Cuba, the GDPs that will grow the least next year are, according to the organization, those of El Salvador (1.6%), Colombia (1.5%), Mexico (1.1%), Argentina (1% ), Brazil (0.9%), Haiti (-0.7%) and Chile (-1.1%).
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