On Monday, the Dane will update the inflation figure for the month of November, and although the market expects prices to increase by an average of 0.54% during the month, the escalation that has been seen in annual inflation could take a breatherand the variation of the consumer price index (CPI) would remain close to the data for October (12.22%) or would rise around 12.29%.
(Read: Inflation will remain high until mid-2023, says Corficolombiana).
This situation would be explained, according to experts, because the figures for November are already being compared with a period of significant price increases, as was the eleventh month of 2021.
“Annual inflation is calculated using the annual figure for October, subtracting the monthly inflation for November of last year and adding the monthly inflation for November of this year. The data for November 2021 was quite high, 0.42%, and that may mean that the increase in annual inflation this year is not so high in November“, explained Andrés Langebaek, executive director of economic research at Grupo Bolívar-Davivienda.
From this entity he expects a monthly figure of 0.55%, and that annual inflation then reaches 12.29%.
Market estimates, according to the Monthly Survey of Expectations of the Banco de la República, suggest that monthly inflation will have an increase between 0.15% and 0.80%, and on the other hand, in the case of the Financial Opinion Survey (EOF) carried out by Fedesarrollo, annual inflation is expected to climb somewhat higher, to 12.34% in November.
At Credicorp Capital, for example, a 0.48% MoM increase is expectedwhich consequently would raise the annual inflation data to 12.21%.
According to Daniel Velandia, chief economist for the entity, in the reference month “food and transportation prices, mainly impacted by the adjustment in gasoline prices, would have the greatest contribution. On the other hand, the reductions announced in fares electricity would avoid a higher increase in total inflation”.
According to Velandia, no further increase in annual inflation is expected because the figures would show “stability versus the previous month,” and even the economist considered that the inflation ceiling could then be the figure for October or November.
(Also: Gasoline price adjustments affect transportation and fiscal accounts).
Other projections in a range similar to that of Credicorp Capital are those of BTG Pactual and the brokerage firm Casa de Bolsa. The first entity projects a monthly variation of 0.49% and the second bet for 0.5%, with an estimate in the annual data of 12.22% in both cases. This would keep inflation at its current level.
Pressures persist in food
Itaú is along the same lines, since the bank expects a CPI for the month of November equivalent to 0.51% monthly variationand they also estimate that the annual indicator would continue around 12.22%.
“On this occasion, the upward pressure would once again be led by the food component, to the extent that there are still significant pressures on some goods, such as vegetables, and also some proteins“said Carolina Monzón, manager of economic research at the entity.
Only for this category, which has been the one that has driven the increase in prices the most throughout the year, Itaú expects a variation of 1.3%, which will also be accompanied by a positive effect from the restaurant sector, due to its direct relationship with the dynamics of food and beverages.
Likewise, the economist said that an important impact is perceived on the transportation side, supported not only by the increase in the price of gasoline that has been taking place gradually, but also by the pressures exerted by the exchange rate on some products such as vehicles, bicycles and motorcycles.
In contrast, the housing group, in which the rents and public services are located, could have a null contribution, since according to Monzón, electricity rates are expected to begin to “correct” after the agreements of the companies energetic.
(Keep reading: Falling dollar is not enough to reach minimum prices for the year).
“The month of November is going to be key, with inflation that in annual terms should remain very similar to what we saw in October, but we are still very attentive to what happens with underlying inflation, which has been generating some pressure in recent months. , and where the exchange rate could generate additional pressure“Monzon said.
Other forecasts, on the other hand, go a little further and consider that November could indeed bring a greater increase in the CPI variation.
Since Scotiabank Colpatria expects a monthly figure of 0.67% and an annual inflation of 12.42% for November, mainly due to food, which according to the entity estimates, could rise 1.2% in monthly terms.
These same calculations are made by BBVA. From this entity, Aura Peña, BBVA Research economist for Colombia, indicated that pressure is expected again from the food basket, in which the transmission of high agro-input costs continues to weigh, in addition to certain pressures due to climatic factors.
“Likewise, in the basic inflation basket (without food) a continuation of effects on the prices of imported goods (which have seen increases in their prices abroad) is expected, to which is added a devalued peso that will make the supply of food more expensive. new inventories (typical of this time) for companies. This would be reflected in the prices to the final consumer.”Pena said.
Laura Lucia Becerra Elejalde
