In the midst of the debate on the motion of censure, The Minister of Mines and Energy, Irene Vélez, pointed out that the country could reach up to 20 years of gas sufficiency (2042).. The calculations are surprising given that the most recent ANH report points to proven reserves (1P) for 8 years; however, adding the probable (2P) and possible (3P) these would reach 11.4 years.
(Read: 2022 oil production exceeds 753,000 barrels per day for the first time).
However, the minister’s calculations contemplate other resources: the offshore Caribbean gas province, as well as contingent and prospective resources.
“If the proven, probable and possible reserves are added and the development of the recent Uchuva discoveries and the integrated evaluation block COL – 5, made by Ecopetrol and its partners in the Caribbean offshore, the supply of this important energy source would be guaranteed. until beyond the year 2037. Even if the current prospective resources are added, the supply would be assured until the year 2042”.
Now, why don’t we count the probable and possible ones? According to a methodological document of the Mining and Energy Planning Unit (Upme), lProbable and possible reserves may be based on future market conditions and development of the deposits.
Amylkar Acosta, former Minister of Mines and Energy, explained that “the only ones that can be counted on are the proven ones,” since they are the ones that have been shown to be extracted, given the economic conditions. He also assured that for this very reason, in a scenario of good prices, the proven resources tend to increase, since their commerciality was guaranteed thanks to this. In the case of quotas, these are those that are considered potentially recoverable. For these, we speak of accumulations that can be brought to the surface with techniques such as improved recovery.
(In context: Minergía confirms that the country would have gas reserves for 20 years).
“If today Colombia increases its recovery factor to international averages, we could count on an increase of close to 15% in our oil resourcesVélez pointed out in his speech before the House of Representatives.
On the other hand, prospects are resources that are estimated to be in the subsoil, but have not yet been discovered. These resources have a series of characteristics, one of which has not yet been found and has not been contracted, so there is no one responsible for their exploitation.
Acosta also pointed out that with respect to the offshore deposits of Ecopetrol, the company that leads the exploration processes, the truth is that even the resources that the company has talked about are also estimates. “They still have to do more drilling and certify the reserves to determine the real number of proven finds.”, he asserted and added that it is necessary to wait for the certifiers and the ANH to deliver the updated balances of the reserves.
(In addition: Minminas denies that mining and oil will be ended).
He stressed that the government announced that it is currently evaluating whether to issue new exploration contracts. However, he clarified that the reactivation of suspended contracts or these figures are arguments for not signing new contracts.
“That is in no way a justification for not signing contracts, because those reserves are not confirmed,” he concluded.
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