The good performance of the grain harvest and oil exports made the trade balance register the highest surplus for the month of November, informed today (1st) the Central Bank (BC). Last month, the country exported US$ 6.675 billion more than it imported. In November of last year, the balance had registered a deficit of US$ 1.11 billion. This is the best result for the month since the beginning of the historical series, in 1989.
From January to November this year, the trade balance accumulates a surplus of US$ 58.025 billion. This represents 0.7% more than that recorded in the same months last year. The accumulated balance, which until October was below that recorded in 2021, reacted and now breaks a record for the 11 months of the year.
Last month, Brazil sold US$ 28.164 billion abroad and bought US$ 21.489 billion. Exports rose 30.5% in relation to November last year, based on the daily average, and broke a record in November, since the beginning of the historical series, in 1989. Imports fell 5.5% in the same comparison, but registered the second best November in history, second only to the same month of 2021.
In the case of exports, the record is due more to the increase in shipments than in the international prices of goods than in the volume traded. Last month, the volume of exported goods rose by an average of 27.2% compared to November last year, while average prices increased by 8%.
The appreciation in the prices of goods sold abroad could be greater were it not for the drop in iron ore, whose price fell 27% in the same comparison, and for industrialized iron products, such as pig iron, sponge iron and iron alloys , whose price fell by 20.3%, due to lockdowns in China, which reduced international demand.
In imports, the quantity purchased fell by 4.9%, reflecting the slowdown in the economy, but average prices increased by 7.6%. The rise in prices was driven mainly by manure, fertilizers, oil, mineral coal and wheat, items that became more expensive after the start of the war between Russia and Ukraine.
Sectors
In the agricultural sector, the increase in the volume shipped, caused by the grain harvest, mainly by the second corn harvest, weighed more on exports. The volume of goods shipped advanced 35.9% in November compared to the same month in 2021, while the average price rose 24.2%. In the manufacturing industry, the quantity exported increased by 16.5%, with the average price increasing by 9.8%.
In the extractive industry, which encompasses the export of ores and oil, the quantity exported rose 51.6%, but average prices dropped 6.6% in relation to November last year.
Crude oil once again drove the increase in exports, with export volumes rising 123.5% and prices rising 0.6%. This occurred because of the resumption of production by Petrobras. After a year of continuous highs, oil prices are starting to slow down because the effects of the war in Ukraine and the economic recovery after the most acute phase of the covid-19 pandemic have already been incorporated into quotations.
The most prominent products in agricultural exports were unground corn, except sweet corn (+222.3%), unroasted coffee (+47.4%) and soy (+16.2%) in agriculture. The negative highlight was oilseeds, whose exports fell 84% from November last year to November this year.
In the extractive industry, the biggest increases were registered in exports of other crude minerals (+168.6%), other ores and base metal concentrates (+145.9%) and crude petroleum oils (+124.9%) . In the manufacturing industry, the biggest increases occurred in fuel (+172.4%), fresh, chilled or frozen beef (+84.6%) and sugar and molasses (+69.8%).
As for imports, the biggest falls were registered in the following products: soy (-93.4%); unground barley (-90.6%); and unground corn, except sweet corn (-55.9%), in agriculture; natural gas (-70.7%) and copper ores and concentrates (-66.1%), in mining and quarrying; and medicines and pharmaceutical products (-55.0%), fertilizers or chemical fertilizers (-42.9%) and telecommunications equipment (-24.5%), in the manufacturing industry.
Regarding manures and fertilizers, imports of industrialized goods fell, but purchases of raw fertilizers almost doubled and rose 192.6% in November compared to the same month last year. The growth stems almost entirely from price, which rose 147.4% in the same comparison, because of the war between Russia and Ukraine. The imported volume rose 18.3%.
I estimated
In November, the government reduced to US$ 55.4 billion the trade surplus estimate in this year. Despite the drop in the estimate, the value would guarantee the second largest trade surplus in the historical series. The balance would be less than the surplus of US$ 61.407 billion observed last year.
Official estimates are updated every three months. The forecasts are in line with those of the financial market. The Focus bulletin, a survey of market analysts released every week by the Central Bank, projects a surplus of US$ 55 billion this year.
