For the second consecutive month, the Commerce Entrepreneur Confidence Index (Icec) recorded growth, now 0.8%, in November. The advance is more expressive compared to 2021, standing at 10.9%.
With the result, the indicator reached 131.9 points and is the highest level of the historical series, which began in 2011. The numbers were released today (25), in Rio de Janeiro, by the National Confederation of Trade in Goods, Services and Tourism (CNC), which calculates the index on a monthly basis.
Both in comparison with October and in relation to November 2021, the highlight was the assessment of the condition of the current performance of the economy (in which optimism increased by 4.8% and 33.8%, respectively), with the highest score – 109 .1 points – since March 2020, the month that marked the beginning of the pandemic.
For the president of the CNC, José Roberto Tadros, the end of the year is traditionally a time of good expectations for the retail sector, but there are other factors that contribute to increasing the confidence of the trade business community.
“In 2022, there is a special and unprecedented condition, which is the combination of purchase intentions for Black Friday and Christmas with the hosting of the World Cup in Qatar,” he said, adding that, in addition to this additional boost, there is the current economy and the forecast for the payment of the first installment of the 13th salary that reinforced the confidence of the trade entrepreneur.
By CNC calculations, Black Friday should move R$ 4.2 billion in the country. If confirmed, it will be the highest revenue since 2010. With the Cup, the expected increase for retail is R$ 1.5 billion.
Hiring
Among the retailers surveyed, 85.2% revealed that they will increase the hiring of employees this year-end. The percentage is the highest proportion since the beginning of the calculation of the Icec, in 2011. After three months of decline, the indicator registered an increase of 0.2% in the monthly comparison. With that, it reached the highest historical level: 144 points.
The CNC economist responsible for the survey, Catarina Carneiro da Silva, pointed out some factors for the increase in hiring intentions. “The arrival of the end of year festivities and the more favorable performance of the economy and trade are encouraging intentions to invest to absorb employees and stimulate consumption”, she explained.
According to CNC statistics, Christmas should result in the hiring of 109,400 temporary workers, the highest volume in nine years in Brazil. Of this total, it is possible that 11% will be hired.
general situation
The CNC also informed that – in line with the positive evolution of retail in September, disclosed by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) – businessmen’s assessment of the current situation of trade improved again in the penultimate month of the year, up 2%, after declines in the previous three months.
Among the most optimistic segments in November are supermarkets, pharmacies and cosmetic stores, with a rise of 4.4% in the indicator.
In the view of the economist, the deflations between July and September allowed for an improvement in the purchasing power of consumers and, consequently, sales in the trade. Catarina pointed out that, in September, the food and beverage group, which has items of great weight in the population’s consumption basket, recorded deflation of 0.51%. Although, in October, inflation in this group increased by 0.72%, the accumulated result in 12 months decelerated by 0.50 percentage points.
Clothes and shoes
The most satisfied with the level of activity in the sector continue to be traders in the clothing, fabrics and footwear segment. With the seventh consecutive monthly high, the indicator reached 120.3 points. “This dynamic happens due to the need that consumers have, at this moment, for new clothes and shoes for the resumption of social events at the end of the year, which should be encouraged by the World Cup”, noted the economist.
A special survey carried out by the CNC, with 18 thousand consumers in all state capitals and in the Federal District, showed that 36% of Brazilians intend to buy items related to the Cup, which would be an increase of 12 percentage points in relation to the World Cup. Football 2018. The preferred items are thematic clothing items, indicated by 14.9% of respondents.
What is the index
For the CNC, the Commerce Entrepreneur Confidence Index is a leading indicator, “exclusively calculated among decision makers in retail companies, whose objective is to detect trends in the sector’s actions from the entrepreneur’s point of view”.
Approximately six thousand companies located in all capitals of the country make up the sample. The index assesses current conditions, short-term expectations and investment intentions of trade entrepreneurs.
