The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Monitor, prepared by the Brazilian Institute of Economics (Ibre) of the Getulio Vargas Foundation (FGV) showed a positive change of 0.4% in economic activity in the third quarter compared to the previous period. Compared to the period from July to September 2021, economic growth is 3.2%. According to the indicator, there was a decrease of 0.4% in September, compared to August and evolution of 2.3% in relation to September 2021. In current values, the estimate is that the accumulated GDP – the sum of all the goods and services produced in the country – until the third quarter of 2022 totaled R$ 7 trillion 235 billion and 825 million.
For the research coordinator, Juliana Trece, the 0.4% GDP growth in the third quarter reflects the positive performance of the three major economic activities, which are agriculture, industry and services, as well as all demand components. Juliana pointed out, however, that even with this positive performance, the result from July to September shows a loss of strength in the economy, as it presents a lower growth rate than that observed in the first and second quarters of the year.
“It can be seen that the decline registered in September is the second consecutive one in economic activity and signals the difficulty of maintaining the pace of growth registered at the beginning of the year. It is not surprising that interest rates at high levels have been reflected in difficulties for the economy in the second half”, he analyzed, adding that due to the fiscal stimuli that occurred in the economy throughout the year, the beginning of the economic weakening “in a way took a while to to arrive”.
Ibre reported that this indicator incorporated the new annual rates for 2020 and the new weighting structure for 2021, recently published by the IBGE. “From that, the reference numbers of the Quarterly National Accounts (CNT), released until the second quarter of 2022, were made compatible with the new annual data released. According to the IBGE, on November 4, the 2020 GDP growth rate was revised from -3.9% to -3.3%”.
With the inclusion of the new weighting structure for 2021, according to Ibre, the Monitor estimated that the GDP growth rate for 2021 was 4.7%, slightly higher than the previous one (4.6%) disclosed in the Quarterly National Accounts.
household consumption
The GDP Monitor also indicated that household consumption rose 5.6% in the third quarter, growth that continues to be driven by the consumption of services. “Since the second quarter, the consumption of non-durable products has also been relevant to the growth in household consumption. Of particular note is the continued drop in consumption of durable goods since the third quarter of 2021”.
Gross Fixed Capital Formation
Gross fixed capital formation (GFCF), which corresponds to investments, increased by 5.6% in the third quarter. The machinery and equipment segment was the main influence for this performance. The analysis indicated that although the segment started the year with significantly negative rates, it changed after the moving quarter ended in July, when it started to grow. “This growth is mainly explained by the performance of imported machines and equipment”.
Export
The export of goods and services also increased (6.3%) in the third quarter, caused by the growth of virtually all segments, with emphasis on the major contributions of the export of intermediate goods and services. The only segment of exports that had a decline (0.9%) was mineral extraction.
Import
Imports of goods and services also evolved (7.4%) between July and September. The reason was the positive performance of imports of services, intermediate goods and capital goods.
