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the results of the elections United States intermediate have surprised by their strange mediocrity. The expected red wave that promised to end the possibilities of the Democratic Party in the face of 2024 has not materialized. The Republican Party, however, has managed to regain control of the House of Representatives, limiting, at least formally, Joe Biden for the remainder of his term.
Commonly, the value of intermediate processes has been based on their ability to ratify or sanction the exercise of government of the party in power. Question in which these elections offer little light. Their value, it seems to me, lies in the lessons that can be drawn within the parties for the next elections.
The Republican Party has achieved a Pyrrhic victory in a context dominated by malaise and economic uncertainty stemming from inflation. It is difficult to think of a better scenario to win over voters, but the radical agenda promoted by extremist groups, as exemplified by the case of “Roe vs Wade”, has alienated more moderate sectors of the population.
Candidates sponsored by former President Donald Trump fell short of meeting party goals, while Florida Gov. Ron de Santis, his main rival for the 2024 presidential nomination, has endorsed his status with favorable results. Trump’s disruptive charisma has begun to show signs of wear and tear, his stridency has begun to worry moderate sectors that cannot help but associate the assault on Congress with a direct attack on democracy.
The success
of the Democrats in the midterm elections precisely responds to a large extent to their ability to assimilate the Trump brand, with the end of the system of checks and balances that is American democracy. However, despite the poor results, former President Trump has announced his intention to run for the Republican nomination, foreshadowing what the Anglo-Saxon media have described as a civil war
inside the party.
as reported the day, the battle for control of the party between Trump and De Santis has begun to produce fractures; On Trump’s side, he appears to be in control of the bases, while De Santis may be currying favor with former allies such as Rupert Murdoch, owner of the Fox network and a former Trump ally.
Satisfied by the relative success in the last elections, the Democrats have opted for the division of the Republican Party to come out ahead in the next electoral process. President Biden’s party will have to do without the experience and resilience of Nancy Pelosi as House Speaker. His absence as leader will not only be significant in the context of the investigation against Biden, announced by the leader of the surveillance committee of that House, Republican James Comer, but will also be noted in the administration of disputes between the progressive and centrist sectors in his own party. The polarization is not exclusive to Republicans, but to the system as a whole.
The main risk facing the Democratic ideology cannot be reduced to the outcome of a dispute within the Republican Party. The defeat of Trump does not necessarily mean the defeat of his political praxis and ideology. Just as the assassination of Julius Caesar resulted in the institutionalization of the figure of Caesar, the Roman Empire and the end of the Senate (Hegel dixit), the political death of Trump may very well mean the institutionalization of Trumpism, this is Trumpism without Trump.
Ron de Santis, exalted as the Republican alternative to radicalism, as indicated by the law antiwoke, has shown to share some of the impulses of his rival. Furthermore, the fringe victory of the moderate group in the House of Representatives puts the radical fringes in an excellent bargaining position, amplifying their voice and forcing moderates, with political ambitions, to make concessions.
The midterm elections in the United States and the defeat of Jair Bolsonaro in Brazil have sent the message that political forms matter, that it is possible to obtain victories from a conciliatory position and close to the center. Lula, from the point of view of the person who writes this, was chosen for being a more traditional politician, with the ability to negotiate and further removed from the reactionary populism of Trump and Bolsonaro, not necessarily for being a left-wing president. It should be remembered that the margins of both elections, however, were very narrow.
The monetary policy of the United States Federal Reserve anticipates that the following years will be economically difficult. If so, the opportunities for polarizing political figures will be plentiful, so victory for the Democrats, and even for De Santis, may not happen. In 2024, the most vital democracy, the United States; the oldest, the British; the most numerous, India, and of course ours, hold elections. Faced with this momentous year, the political institutes of the various countries must reflect and figure out what the electorate has told them, otherwise it may be too late.
