COVID-19 in Peru: When would the fifth wave begin and which regions registered an increase in infections?

Shortly after a month since the Government eliminated the health restrictions of COVID-19, the National Center for Epidemiology, Prevention and Disease Control (CDC / Minsa) recently issued an epidemiological alert due to an increase in cases of coronavirus, indicative already known that would warn the arrival of a possible fifth wave in Peru.

According to the CDC, in information provided on November 10, the increase in COVID-19 cases is currently registered in the regions of Loreto, Arequipa, Cusco, Ancash and Ica. As well as Callao and Metropolitan Lima.

In Metropolitan Lima, the increase occurs in the four DIRISmainly in the districts of Ate, Breña, Carabayllo, Chorrillos, Comas, Independencia, Jesús María, La Molina, La Victoria, Pueblo Libre and Rímac.

Also in San Borja, San Isidro, San Juan de Lurigancho, San Juan de Miraflores, San Martín de Porres, San Miguel, Santiago de Surco, Surquillo, Villa El Salvador and Villa María del Triunfo; while, in Callao, in the districts of Callao and Ventanilla.

At the regional level

It should be remembered that last November 3, the CDC reported that cases in the Loreto region had increased sixfold, while in Moquegua the situation was critical.

“The number of cases in Loreto has increased sixfold, but the good thing that is happening is that hospitalizations are not growing and there are no admissions to the ICU. So, fortunately, the vast majority of the outbreaks are mild cases that are caused by sublineages of Omicron BA.5. That’s what we know”, indicated Dr. Eduardo Ortega, Guillén, general director of the CDC.

Moquegua

The region of Moquegua presents a special case because although the number of cases has only risen 50%, hospitalizations have increased. “In the last five weeks, we have registered 14 hospitalizations and three admissions to the ICU, which should draw our attention and make the most vulnerable population get vaccinated,” Ortega added.

If in epidemiological week (EW) 39, 17 cases were reported, in EW-42 there were 25. Most of the increase occurred in the district of Ilo, in adults and older adults.

When would the fifth wave of COVID-19 start in Peru?

Dr. Eduardo Ortega estimated that Peru I would be entering a fifth wave of COVID-19 in the fortnight of December. “I must mention that it is expected that there will be outbreaks for a period, but our projection is that there will be a fifth wave more or less in the fortnight of December, but that it will have hospitalized figures lower than the fourth wave,” he pointed out in a dialogue with TV Perú Noticias.

For his part, the Dean of the Medical College of Peru, Raúl Urquizo, pointed out that the risk of being reinfected will be high in a fifth wave. He also hopes that December is not a month with high numbers of infections and deaths.

“Now we have a significant increase trend in Loreto and Lima, and it is likely to appear in other places because people are not wearing a mask, they are going about their normal lives and the risk of re-infection will be high”, he indicated

“We are very concerned because from one moment to the next all the restrictions were lifted and in our opinion it was a political decision rather than a technical one, at least they should have received the opinions of the experts in managing pandemics… Now the first thing is to know if we are prepared or not for a fifth wave. There is no response in the Ministry of Health with a contingency program and we have pointed it out to the minister last week that we have met”, he added.

The specialist assured that he has requested the Minister of Health, Kelly Roxana Portalatino Ávalos, the contingency plan to face this new wave of COVID-19. On the side, she urged the population to get vaccinated.

Will a fifth dose be applied in Peru?

On the other hand, the Dr. Eduardo Ortega Guillen He referred to the possible application of a fifth dose against the coronavirus. “It is a very strong discussion at this time if a fifth dose is needed, in what age groups and in what period. Whether it will be an annual vaccine or not. For the moment we can say that the third dose has strong evidence of protection against serious illness and death, fourth dose is recommended in people over 60 years of age, immunosuppressed, pregnant women, health personnel and that more studies will be required to evaluate the advantage and the need for the following doses of the vaccine in society in general”he pointed.

How to avoid COVID-19 infections at the end of the year parties?

very close to the end of year partys and in the face of a possible fifth wave of COVID-19, the medical epidemiologist of EsSalud, Edwin Neciosupgave recommendations to the population to avoid scenarios of previous waves when cases skyrocketed on the aforementioned dates.

• If a person has a cold or something very similar, and suspects COVID-19you must necessarily wear the mask so as not to disperse the virus.
• If people have any type of comorbidity such as hypertension, diabetes, obesity, or are adults over 60 years of age and are in an area that could generate a level of risk, they should also use the mask.
• If there is a person in the close circle who has the conditions to develop a serious illness, this person should be protected and prevented from attending fellowship activities.

The epidemiologist also stressed that The most important preventive measure to control this pandemic has been vaccination.therefore, it is necessary “reinforce the vaccination schedule, complete our four doses of vaccines.”

He also recalled that there is an association “between not having full vaccination and the risk of developing a serious illness and death”.

Finally, given the scenarios that are already known during these dates, the authorities urge the population to take health care responsibly in order to avoid massive infections during Christmas and New Year.

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