Additionally, the federal government has been very efficient in collecting, “it has been able to collect more than anticipated,” commented the economist.
Taxes, the saviors
And for sample a button is enough; So far from January to September, the Treasury reports that additional public revenues to those programmed totaled 258,237 million pesos (mdp), oil revenues and ISR collection were the ones that amortized the effects of the drop in IEPS collection to gasoline, the subsidy granted by the Treasury to amortize inflation.
In the same period, oil surpluses were 212,128 million pesos and ISR were 173,345 million pesos.
The foregoing with the expectation of growth of the Treasury’s GDP for 2022, when the Economic Package was approved, of 4.1% at the end of 2021, and adjusted to 2.4% when the Treasury delivered the economic package for the following year last September. According to Gabriel Yorio, no adjustments are expected to be made to the forecast for this year. The latest Citibanamex survey refers to an expectation of 2% for GDP at the end of 2022.
Now, for the following year, the Treasury has an estimate of 3%, while the private sector consensus is at 1.2%, and Barclays expects 0.9%.
According to the sensitivities of the budget, estimated by the Treasury for 2023, a variation of half a point in economic growth in 2023 would mean an impact of 23,090 million pesos (mdp) in public revenue.
Treasury rules out fall in GDP in 2023
“Although the world could enter a stage of a potential economic slowdown, growth will continue to be positive, in the case of Mexico, the latest information we saw from Inegi, is that it reflects that a fairly strong performance is maintained, especially in Mexico. United States derived from consumption, employment recovery, the same is observed in Mexico”, said Undersecretary Yorio at a press conference regarding public finances and debt for the third quarter.
Rodrigo Mariscal, Chief Economist of the Treasury, explained that by 2023, there are many factors that are going to play against the United States economy, however, the factors that most affect Mexico’s growth still look positive and quite robust. , for instance; industrial production, and export growth that will continue next year.
The Treasury economist explained that the growth of employment in the United States has been high, so even with a shock in economic activity, the level is high, and this would support the entry of workers, especially migrants, so that they could have a good level of remittances.
“There are other activities as well, such as tourism and its associated activities that are showing good performance and will continue to strongly support the national economy,” said Mariscal.
