Victor Raul Benitez Gonzalez
President of the Ideas Club
Professor of the Getulio Vargas Foundation – Brazil
The atmosphere prior to the voting in the second round in Brazil reflects what was said in the debate on Friday night on the Globo network. The most relevant is the final question of a journalist at the end of the debate to Bolsonaro. You President, you will respect the results in case you do not come out the winner. This question says two things. One, that Lula is in charge. Two, that Bolsonaro could break the rule of law. The president of Brazil said: Yes, I will respect democracy.
The electoral climate has the following characteristics:
In Sao Paulo Bolsonaro wins, but in Minas Gerais plus the north and northeast Lula wins. In the south Bolsonaro wins. The debate was marked by accusations by Bolsonaro, without proposals. Lula was seen to be calmer, perhaps due to her advantage in the voting intention polls. Lula accuses Bolsonaro of being a health and economic chaos, insisting that the minimum wage has not risen in recent years. Bolsonaro was very good at attacking, without making value judgments. Lula was good at acting on stage. The undecided are now very few and Lula continues to hold an advantage. There is no longer room for the third way in Brazil. The polarization is almost absolute.
The polls say the following: on valid votes
Lula 54% and Bolsonaro 46%, according to IPEC.
Lula 53% and Bolsonaro 47%, according to Data Folha.
After the success of Bolsonaro, who challenged the polls in the first round, surpassing by 10 percentage points what they gave him for voting intentions, the president of Brazil fell back into the sympathy of Brazilians after his ministers had gross communication errors. between the first and second shifts, and after an ally of the president, Roberto Jefferson, was shot by the police who came looking for him to reverse a probation and take him to prison for crimes committed in previous years.
Opinions are divided: elect a corrupt democrat or a corrupt dictator.
