The president of the Central Reserve Bank of Peru (BCR), Julio Velarde, pointed out that so far there are no economic agents that are projecting a recession in Peru in the short term. In addition, he said that in the scheme of the monetary entity, it is expected that the country’s inflation, which at 12 months stands at 8.53%, will be reduced without a contraction in the Peruvian economy.
“Until now there is no one who is talking about rescission in Peru as a central projection. I think we are going to be successful in bringing down inflation without causing a recession.” Velarde pointed out during the XL Meeting of Economists of the BCR this past Wednesday.
The banker added that everything points to inflation going down. The BCR’s projection is to reach 3% by the end of next year, in other words, to return to the upper limit of the target range.
He also stated that in the United States some banks are already talking about a recession, but that there are still few entities that consider such a scenario. “Most think it will be small, (a recession) technical”, stressed.
In that sense, he specified that the risk seen by central banks in the world is that the balance of low inflation is lost and higher expectations are maintained in consumer prices by economic agents. That said, the situation would be even more complicated for the global economy.
projections
Julio Velarde recalled that in the first half of this 2022 public investment in Peru has fallen by 5%.
Along these lines, the current projection of the BCR is that this indicator will grow 7% by the end of the year with the recovery that would be seen in the last six months. However, the banker said the figures are likely to be corrected lower.
By 2023, due to the election of new regional and municipal authorities, both the BCR and other entities anticipate that public investment will contract.
