Florida International University (FIU) released its usual survey on the social and political status of Cuban-Americans in Miami-Dade County on Tuesday. To put it badly and soon, the conclusions are roughly that the room is the same.
A turn to the right is reaffirmed accompanied by an increase in sympathy for the Republicans in a state that used to be mostly Democratic, something that the global results of the November 8 midterm elections could ratify.
It is that the majority of Cuban-Americans give President Biden poor marks for his handling of the problems facing the country (barely 30% approve of him), while 37% say they want to see former President Donald Trump on the ballot of 2024.
Although Biden’s national approval rating (42%) puts him in the company of most previous presidents during midterm elections, only 32% of Cuban-Americans view his work positively. And 37% would like to see former President Donald Trump back on the ballot. A majority of registered Republicans (59%) say they support Trump.
Basically, this poll shows that the Republican Party remains the party of choice among voters of Cuban descent in South Florida. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis and Senator Marco Rubio are expected to receive about 64% of the Cuban-American vote in these midterm elections.
“It seems that the GOP train is still picking up passengers on Calle Ocho,” said Guillermo Grenier, the lead researcher on the survey and a professor of sociology in the Department of Global and Sociocultural Studies at the Steven J. Green School of Public Affairs and Internacionales, which sponsors the survey together with the Cuban Research Institute of FIU. “They remain loyal to the Republican Party and to the version of Trump,” he said.
Republicans continue to hold a slim majority among registered Cuban-American voters (52%) and are shifting that support to newcomers from the island. 54% of registered voters who arrived from 2015 onwards say they are registered Republicans.
Republican congressional candidates are also expected to receive strong support from Cuban Americans, with 52% of voters reporting they will vote for the Republican candidate from their district.
On the other hand, the economy, health care and immigration are the issues that most concern Cuban Americans. For the first time, immigration appears among the top three since the survey began in 1991. This would have to do with the change in the admission practices of Cubans in the United States and with the fact that almost all of those who arrive via sea are returned to the island.
On the issue of the US embargo/blockade on Cuba, 63% of Cuban-Americans in South Florida support its continuation, although they also show relatively high support for some Biden-era compromise policies, such as food sales (64 % support) and medicine (72% support) to the island. Likewise, they aspire to the resumption of air travel to all regions of Cuba (71% support).
“The results of this year’s FIU Cuba Survey suggest the need for the Biden administration to chart a clear and calibrated course between the engagement policies of the Obama era and the isolationist policies of the Trump era toward Cuba,” he said. Jorge Duany, director of the Cuban Research Institute.
In his opinion, “the status quo in relations between the United States and Cuba, neither the defenders of “normalizing” bilateral ties nor of applying “maximum pressure” to promote the democratization of the island are pleased. How to actively support the Cuban people (without ‘oxygenating’ the current regime) within the existing legal and political framework in the United States is the Gordian knot of the policy towards Cuba”.
82% of Cuban Americans also overwhelmingly support the resumption of consular services and the issuance of visas at the Embassy in Havana, as well as the continuation of the Family Reunification Parole Program (92%), which allows certain eligible US citizens and lawful permanent residents apply for expedited immigration visas for their family members in Cuba.
“In the absence of a significant change in the narrative on Cuba policy coming from Washington, the Cuban-American community remains ambivalent about its political preferences,” Grenier added.
“On the one hand, the traditional isolationist line remains strong, while there is support for policies that support the Cuban people in this difficult time.”
Except for the support for the embargo/blockade, which only during Obama’s mandate had the minority support of Cuban-Americans, now the river seems to have returned to its course, including those who arrived after 2015, who are betting on its maintenance.
