ECLAC estimated low economic growth in Latin America in 2022

The executive secretary of the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (Cepal), Alicia Bárcena, explained that the region is facing a period of enormous uncertainty in which asymmetries are deepening and will face a lower increase in Gross Domestic Product ( GDP) and trade.

He specified that the economic slowdown occurs amid great disparities in the capacities of developed, emerging and developing countries to implement social, monetary, health and immunization policies for a sustainable recovery from the crisis unleashed by the Covid-19 pandemic. 19.

ECLAC predicts that Brazil, the largest economy, will be the one that progresses the least this year by just 0.5 percent, while Mexico will do so 2.9, Colombia 3.7 and Chile 1.9 percent.

Bárcena pointed out that a scenario like the one proposed in 2022 is due to the fact that labor markets have not recovered from the blow inflicted by the health emergency.

“The pandemic had a very strong impact on informality, which is expected to increase with devastating social effects,” he added, adding that these are clearly seen in the vulnerability of some sectors of the population, such as women.

However, ECLAC expects a slight improvement in the levels of poverty and extreme poverty, with a decrease of 1.5 percent in the first and 0.7 percent in the second.

The study by that UN body attributes the complex reality of the region in 2022 to the perseverance and uncertainty about the evolution of the pandemic, the sharp slowdown in world growth and the persistence of low investment, productivity and slow recovery of employment.

Also to the persistence of the social effects caused by the crisis, less fiscal space, inflationary increases and financial imbalances.

The report highlights that lower world growth will mean lower external demand and reduced growth in world trade, which will directly impact the Latin American economies.

In relation to the prices of raw materials, on whose exports a large part of the regional GDP depends, the projections point to a decrease or, in the best of cases, to remain at the level of 2021, but not to rise.

msm / crc