The US dollar (USD) experiences a downward trend in the most recent days in the informal market in Cuba, after having reached the unprecedented limit of 200 Cuban pesos (CUP) weeks ago.
This Tuesday the USD was trading at 185 CUP according to the index published by the independent media The touchwhich is based on a system that follows transactions on various digital platforms and web pages, and is used as a reference by economists and the population in general.
The downward trend also reaches the euro, which stood at 183 CUP, and the virtual currency of the Cuban Government, the Freely Convertible Currency (MLC), which fell to 180 CUP, after having shown an upward trend in the months previous.
The maximum limit of these coins was reached at the beginning of this month of October, after which their values stabilized and then began to fall, a movement that for many is unexpected.
This decrease takes place in the midst of the severe economic crisis that the Island is going through and when the country is still working on recovering from the devastating effects of the Hurricane Ianwhich hit western Cuba hard at the end of September.
In this context, also following the energy crisis, the scarcity of a group of basic products and rising inflation, analysts estimated that the depreciation would continue to deepen for weeks and months for these and other reasons, including the current wave of migration that Cuba is suffering. , in which many people look for dollars to undertake an irregular journey to the United States.
Economists consulted weeks ago by the agency EFE They also pointed to the effects that a series of measures taken by the Island Government had on the value of the dollar in the Cuban informal market, from the monetary reform of the so-called Ordering Taskfrom early 2021, to the recent establishment of a limited official foreign exchange market.
As will be remembered, at the beginning of August, the Minister of Economy, Alejandro Gil, announced that the State would buy foreign currencies from natural persons. Then an exchange rate five times higher than the official one was announced —24 CUP per USD—, setting a level similar to that of the informal market at that time, around 120 CUP.
Twenty days later, Gil made another announcement: the government would also sell foreign currency, albeit with limitations. The objective, as he explained, was to strengthen the peso and displace the sale of dollars on the street, something that in practice has not happened nor had it prevented the increase in the value of the USD in the informal market until a few days ago, when it began to descend.
However, this downward trend is not accompanied by a change in the factors that have so far led to the rise in the value of the USD, nor by a decline in the prices of food and other products in the informal market, the markets supply and demand, and the private sector, where prices have actually continued to rise.
Therefore, the specialists consulted consider that it could be a contextual trend, as has already happened before, and that, without significant positive changes in the economic scenario of the Island or without an increase in the current limit on the sale of dollars by the State , it is likely that it will not be sustained over time and the value of the USD will rise again.
