Proselytism is what is most seen in political activity, and it is not its center; it is the macroeconomic behavior of the country and the world, with its consequences. Macroeconomics is broken down into indicators. The gross domestic product (GDP) with its growth or recession; when it stops growing for two consecutive quarters, there is probably a recession. Inflation is when prices rise, generally because there is a greater money supply buying than the supply of the products.
The recession drags unemployment because it is a decline and even bankruptcies of productive sectors, which leaves labor forces out. In turn, the recession stimulates inflation, because it reduces the supply of products.
The Central Bank has withdrawn money supply, causing less investment and caused a low productive supply; This is how inflation takes shape with other characteristics, because there will be those who don’t have money and those who have can’t find the goods because their offer has been lowered.
The most serious thing is when inflation, unemployment and recession come together; that is called stagflation. The term was initially used by Ian McLeod, in 1965, British Chancellor of the Exchequer, in a speech to Parliament.
Bosch said: “If the economy goes wrong, the political course will go wrong.”
The IMF has now said, in October, in “World Economic Outlook”: “Global economic activity is experiencing a widespread and sharper-than-expected slowdown, with inflation at its highest in several decades (…). According to forecasts, global growth will slow from 6.0% in 2021 to 3.2% in 2022 and 2.7% in 2023 (…)… this is the weakest growth profile since 2001. Global inflation is forecast to rise from 4.7% in 2021 to 8.8% in 2022, to later drop to 6.5% in 2023 and 4.1% in 2024”.
It adds: “The course of monetary policy must be maintained to restore price stability, and fiscal policy must seek to alleviate pressures on the cost of living, maintaining a sufficiently restrictive orientation so that it is aligned with monetary policy. To contribute more to the fight against inflation, structural reforms that improve productivity and ease restrictions on supply can be resorted to, while multilateral cooperation is necessary…”.
It provides data: World growth was 6.0, 3.2 and projected 2.7 to 2023; in the US of 5.7, 1.6 and estimated 1.0 to 2023; Euro Zone 5.2, 3.1 and 0.5. Latin America and the Caribbean: 6.9, 3.5 and 1.7. The World Bank has said more (Sep 15) and: “…the world could be inching towards a global recession in 2023 and a series of financial crises in emerging markets and developing economies (…) increases in interest rates and other policy measures may not be enough to bring global inflation down to pre-pandemic levels…”
WB President David Malpass added: “To achieve low inflation rates, monetary stability and faster growth, policymakers could shift the focus from reducing consumption to increasing production. Policies should generate additional investments and improve productivity.”
The solution is said there, it is to invest protecting and improving production. Does Abinader know?
