October 15, 2022, 11:48 AM
October 15, 2022, 11:48 AM
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February has led to an accelerating flow of weapons into the war-torn country, elevating the aggrieved nation into the ranks of the top recipients of US arms and security assistance.
Until the first week of October, Washington has provided a whopping $17.5 billion in arms and military assistance to Ukraine.
The five largest US arms buyers during the 2017-2021 period were Saudi Arabia, which accounted for 23.4% of all US arms exports, followed by Australia (9.4%), South Korea (6.8 %), Japan (6.7%) and Qatar (5.4%).
But that paltry percentage is expected to skyrocket by 2022, judging by the uninterrupted flow of US weapons since the start of the war in Ukraine.
In a statement to reporters on October 4, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said that, pursuant to a delegation of authority from the President, “I am authorizing our 22nd shipment of US weapons and equipment to Ukraine since August of 2021».
This $625 million item, he said, includes weapons, ammunition, and additional equipment from US Department of Defense inventories.
With the new shipment, total US military aid to Ukraine will rise to more than $17.5 billion since the start of the Joe Biden administration in January 2021.
Pieter Wezeman, senior researcher at Sipri’s Arms Transfers Program, told IPS that arms supplies to Ukraine were historically paltry compared to those of the top 15 recipients of US weapons.
“This will change in 2022, as Ukraine has received important weapons systems from the United States, such as 20 Himars long-range rocket launchers, about 1000 old models of used light armored vehicles, radars and 142 M-777 towed guns”said.
He pointed out that “these are the most valuable systems Ukraine has received from the United States, but the number and military or financial value of these weapons are modest compared to what some other countries have received in major systems in recent years.”
He noted that Ukraine has not received other items that are especially valuable such as modern tanks, fighter jets, major ships and long-range air defense systems.
Natalie J. Goldring, a visiting professor at the Sanford School of Public Policy at Duke University in North Carolina, told IPS that in any case arms transfers to Ukraine carry many risks.
“A major risk is that the weapons will be captured by Russian forces and potentially used against Western forces. Another is that the weapons that remain when the conflict ends are transferred to other conflict areas, ”he warned.
One of the nightmare scenarios, he noted, is that US weapons are used against US forces. The transfer of large quantities of arms in such a short period of time increases this risk by making accountability and prevention of arms diversion more difficult.
Worst perhaps the greatest risk of all, he argued, “is that Russian President Vladimir Putin will not accept the argument that these weapons are only supplied to help Ukraine defend itself, especially if we are supplying weapons that can hit targets inside Russia.” .
This may lead to an escalation and expansion of the conflict, and would probably produce even more threats of use of nuclear weapons of which President Putin has already done, he considered.
“The escalation of threats in turn increases the risk that nuclear weapons will be used, either deliberately or by accident or miscalculation,” said Goldring, who also represents the Acronym Institute for United Nations Disarmament Diplomacy. Nations, on issues of conventional arms and arms trade.
In the end, he argued, regardless of the outcome of the conflict itself, the military contractors always win.
The Defense Department has already begun ordering replacements for some of the weapons shipped to Ukraine. US arms manufacturers are profiting from what appears to be a indefinite supply commitment to the Ukrainian forces.
Even for weapons still in production, she argued, supply line problems can make it difficult to replace weapons transferred to Ukraine in a timely manner.
This raises the question of how long the US military will be able to maintain these shipments without threatening the readiness of US forces, he added.
According to the US Department of Defense, the security aid package for Ukraine that was announced on October 4, 2022, is the country’s 22nd shipment of stockpiles in less than a year.
In that day’s press release about the additional input, Blinken said: “The capabilities we are delivering are carefully calibrated to make the biggest difference on the battlefield and strengthen Ukraine’s hand at the negotiating table when the time is right.” appropriate”.
“But with no indication of when real peace negotiations will take place, the seemingly endless flow of weapons from the US is likely to continue and US defense contractors will continue to increase their profits. At the same time, however, the risks of these transfers also increase as the number of arms transferred grows,” he stated.
To justify the shipment of arms, the Secretary of State argued: “We will continue to support the people of Ukraine as they defend their freedom and independence with extraordinary courage and boundless determination.”
“The capabilities we are delivering are carefully calibrated to make the biggest difference on the battlefield and strengthen Ukraine’s hand at the negotiating table when the time is right. We are united with Ukraine,” he added.
During the high-level session of the 77th United Nations General Assembly, President Biden made it clear once again on September 21 that the United States will stand with the people of Ukraine “for as long as it takes.”
Blinken stated that “the latest developments, from the fake referendums and annexation attempts by Russia to the new revelations of brutality against the civilian population in the Ukrainian territory previously controlled by Russia, only strengthen our determination.”
“Together with our allies and partners from 50 countries, we are delivering the weapons and equipment that Ukrainian forces are using so effectively today in a successful counteroffensive to recover their lands illegally taken by Russia“, he claimed.
Sipri’s Wezeman said the bulk of US military aid to Ukraine consists of large amounts of anti-tank missiles, including more than 8,000 Javelin anti-tank missiles, and more than a million rounds for heavy artillery and probably thousands of advanced guided rockets for Himar systems.
These quantities of ammunition, he said, far exceed the amount of ammunition normally imported by any US arms receiver in any given year.
The figures are so large that they are important, considered the Sipri specialist, even if it is necessary to supply tens of thousands of cartridges to equal the value of, for example, a new F-15SA fighter plane, in addition to the infrastructure, training, the spare parts of the ammunition and other implements related to it.
He recalled that, in addition, there has already been talk of sending more important weapons to Ukraine, including the possibility of supplying tanks and fighter aircraft, as has been suggested. And if this happens, Ukraine will climb even higher in the ranks of recipients of US arms.
