The BBVA Research team for Colombia presented an update of its economic projections for this year and for the next. According to the entity, it is estimated that the variation of the GDP will have a growth of 7.6% in 2022, which for the next growth will be 0.7%.
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The figure for 2022 is explained by the good performance of the economy, especially in the first half of the year. “We are beginning to see signs of an economic slowdown and a healthy adjustment of the economy”said Mauricio Hernández, senior economist at BBVA Research, who said he believes long-term growth is more sustainable, “Because those levels of consumption that we brought were not sustainable.”
On the other hand, according to Juana Téllez, the bank’s chief economist for the country, inflation will end the year close to 12%, with a punctual projection of 11.8%, and at least in the next two years, It will continue to be outside the target range of Banco de la República, which is 3%, with a margin between 2% and 4%.
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“A year from now we still expect inflation to be 7%, not only us, but in different surveys, and two years from now we are close to 4.5% inflation. Expectations remain anchored, inflation is expected to subside a year from now, but especially two years from now”, Tellez said.
Juana Téllez, Chief Economist at BBVA.
Twitter Juana Téllez, chief economist at BBVA.
From BBVA they recognized that the figure of 11.44% of the inflation of September surprised again on the rise, but that it is expected that it will moderate gradually. “The prices of urea and fertilizers are giving way a little. We are optimistic that this food inflation is going to decrease, and that the PPI will also stabilize. That would help to have a better food inflation going forward”, Tellez said.
According to the economist, these bank projections include the fuel price increase announced by the Government, which is expected for the remainder of this year and next, and also includes the increase in the minimum wage and the effects related to the La Niña phenomenon, which is expected to continue until March.
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According to BBVA Research, Banco de la República is close to the end of its upward cycle, however, it will have room to “some additional increase”, and will close 2022 around 11%. The entity expects that by the latter part of 2023 the reductions in the Issuer’s intervention rate will arrive.
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