The Intelligence Unit of the magazine The Economist (EIU), a publication of international reference, does not see immediate changes in political terms in Nicaragua. They say that although Daniel Ortega He is 76 years old, they hope that “he will remain in power, as long as his health allows it.”
The conclusion is part of his 25-page report, dated September 21, which weighs political aspects with economic data to offer a forecast for Nicaragua. For the EIU, the official Sandinista National Liberation Front (FSLN) will continue to be the dominant political force, within a context that they qualify as “growing authoritarianism”.
The publication highlights that Ortega has been in power for 15 years and he has used the legislative majority to co-opt state institutions, eliminate presidential term limits and bolster the state security apparatus, and has not lost sight of his family’s dynastic claims.
EIU recalls that Ortega co-governs with Rosario Murillohis wife, who has held the position of vice president since 2016 —which makes her his constitutional successor— but they mention one of their children, Laureano Ortega Murillo as a possible political actor in that sense.
“(Laureano) has assumed more political responsibilities in recent years, possibly paving the way for the dynastic succession”, affirmed the analysis section of the British magazine, referring to the public role of the son of the presidential couple, who works as an investment adviser to his parents and combines his government activity with his hobby as an opera singer.
Since 2013, Laureano Ortega Murillo he has publicly led the dictatorship’s rapprochement with China and Russia, the regime’s main international allies. In addition, he is associated with the Administration’s megaprojects that remained on paper and never materialized, such as the construction of the inter-oceanic canal, for which the repressive forces of the State also raged against the peasant sector.
The EIU recalls that the Legislative Power is made up of 91 deputies, of which 75 are Sandinistas. The Electoral Power —the body in charge of elections— is under the control of the Executive and, on the other hand, the opposition that participates in the ballot is co-opted by the FSLN.
No competitive elections
The main non-Sandinista party is the Liberal Constitutionalist Party (PLC) (…) “however, it has a long history of collaboration with the FSLN, highlighting the extent to which the opposition has been co-opted by the regime. The next elections are municipal and are scheduled for November 2022. They will not be free or fair,” he added.
According to a publication by the Supreme Electoral Council, carried out on Thursday, September 22, the final list of candidates for mayor, deputy mayor and councilor of the 153 municipalities in the country has already been published in La Gaceta.
Independent analysts considered that they were “a reward for loyalty” to the presidential couple. An analysis of CONFIDENTIALpublished on September 15, determined that 118 mayors of the 141 municipalitieswhich currently controls the FSLN, intend to repeat in office for another consecutive term, which reveals that there is no political change at the local level.
EIU recalled that there will be no competitive elections in the November municipal elections or, that the FSLN forced out the opposition mayors months ago and did not allow them to run in the polls of the “collaborationist parties”, “a prospect that the government could not tolerate.”
The Intelligence Unit of The Economist affirms that there will not be a “truly competitive election (in Nicaragua), while Ortega is in power.”
Dependence on China and Russia
The report analyzes the resumption of Ortega’s diplomatic relations with Chinaafter leaving Taiwan in December 2021, which would have been due to the search for new sources of financing and investment.
“We believe that, over time, the (Central American) country will benefit from at least enough Chinese investment to fill the gaps left by multilateral and bilateral sources. One factor working in the government’s favor is that Nicaragua’s financing requirement is miniscule from China’s perspective; Chinese officials will likely be willing to cover for it in exchange for a strategic ally in a region,” they added.
Amid the current situation, the EIU says the regime’s short-term priority is the pursuit of fiscal consolidation, the burden of the public debt in Nicaragua is equivalent to 67% of GDP in 2022, which they consider high for a country in the developing stage. They add that a poor business environment, persistent political conflict and unlimited access to private sector financing are factors weighing on Nicaragua’s growth prospects..
In its previous report, in July, the EIU warned that growth will slow between 2022 and 2026, and this time adds that they expect growth rates “to continue to be mediocre” and highlight that remittances remained high. That flow could mean “slightly faster private consumption and import growth in the second half of the forecast period.”
Furthermore, according to the EIU, although there is a risk that the United States will intensify political pressureimposing sanctions against Nicaragua, do not believe that it means the implementation of more powerful measures such as the exclusion of the country from the trade agreement between the United States, Central America and the Dominican Republic.
In July, The United States removed the sugar quota for fiscal year 2023 from Nicaraguawhich was interpreted as a message to Ortega and the businessmen, after the president rejected in a public speech the possibility of dialogue with his main commercial partner.
However, the EIU asserts that withdrawing from the trade agreement “would not only complicate such a move from a legal perspective, but also imposes severe economic hardship on ordinary Nicaraguans and the region in general.”
