Finally, a third point will be the state elections. In 2022 there will be governor elections in six states, all of which are governed by parties opposed to Morena: three by the PAN, two by the PRI, and one by the PRD. If the results favor Morena, his dominance will be fully consolidated at the state level. Something unexpected because only in 2017 Morena did not have a single governor.
Currently Morena only governs 45% of the population with governors in 16 states. In 2022 this may change. If Morena manages to win just two more states (Oaxaca and Tamaulipas), he will rule the majority of the population and control most of the states. If he wins in all the states where there will be elections, López Obrador’s party will govern 57.4% of Mexicans at the local level, something not seen since 2012, when the PRI controlled 20 states.
The 2022 election is important because it will see if the opposition can beat Morena with PRI-PAN-PRD alliances and if the Citizen Movement will keep its word not to ally with them. The alliance is not a guarantee of beating Morena. In fact, in the 2021 elections, the PAN lost in all the states in which it allied with the PRI. 2022 will show if the PRI-PAN-PRD alliance really has the wood to compete in 2024.
It will also be interesting to observe the profiles that we will have of candidates for governor. Currently, Mexico has seven governors who are equivalent to governing 18% of the population. In 2022, up to 31% of Mexico’s population may be governed locally by a woman, an unprecedented fact.
The political figures to follow in 2022 in Mexico
In addition to the three above, some miscellaneous issues that will have to be on the radar in 2022 will be the appointment of directors in the Federal Competition Commission (COFECE), the elections for union representation that will continue to be carried out as part of the labor reform, the results that the Morena governments have given at the local level through the National Survey of Quality and Government Impact that will come out in 2022, and of course, the Evaluation Report of the Social Development Policy, published by the National Evaluation Council of the Social Development Policy (CONEVAL), which will allow us to know how effective López Obrador’s social spending was during the Pandemic.
Overall, 2022 will be a very exciting year in terms of public policy and I hope my readers will join me. Thank you very much and happy 2022!
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Editor’s note:
The opinions in this article are the sole responsibility of the author.
