For the twelfth consecutive week, the financial market reduced the forecast for inflation in 2022. A week ago, projections were that the Broad National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) would close the year at 6.4%. According to the Focus bulletin released today, this percentage dropped to 6% second. Four weeks ago, the forecast was at 6.82%.
For subsequent years, the financial market forecast is that the IPCA will close 2023 at 5.01%; and, in 2024 and 2025, by 3.5% and 3%, respectively.
GDP and exchange rate
The projections for the Gross Domestic Product (GDP – the sum of all the wealth produced in the country) rose from the 2.39% forecast last week to 2.65%, according to the bulletin released today.
Four weeks ago, the financial market projected a GDP of 2.02%. Projections for GDP in 2023, 2024 and 2025 are, respectively, at 0.5%; 1.7%; and 2%.
Projections for the exchange rate have been stable for eight consecutive weeks, with the market predicting that, at the end of the year, the dollar will be costing R$ 5.20 – the same value projected for the end of 2023. For 2024 and 2025, the Focus bulletin projects that the US currency will cost BRL 5.11 and BRL 5.15, respectively.
Selic
Stability forecasts for the basic interest rate (Selic) in this and the coming years. For 13 weeks in a row, the market projects that, by the end of 2022, the Selic will be at 13.75%.
For 2023, the rate projections have been at 11.25% for two weeks. Ten weeks ago, the Selic forecast for 2024 stood at 8%; and for 15 weeks the projections are stationary at 7.5% for 2025.
