The week began with new rules of the game in Argentina and this time the government’s proposal was favorably received by soy producersthat They have liquidated more than US$ 1,000 million in soybeans when the base expectation was to exceed US$ 5,000 million throughout September.
The Argentine government obtains dollars for its reserves and the producers obtain a dollar price of $200, more convenient than what had been offered until now.
The regional movement lowered the soy pricewhich in Uruguay it is offered this week for the next harvest below US$ 500 per ton and with a long way to go, since it has been below US$ 490.
In a certain sense, what is happening with soybeans is part of a broader trend generated by the rise in rates and the dollar at the international level, accompanied by a very abundant harvest expected for the fall in Mercosur, which would come after a also important in the United States.
john samuel
Soy harvest in Uruguay; for 2023 the price fell to US$ 490 per ton.
Climate and politics will continue to generate volatility. This week was marked by Threats from Russian President Vladimir Putin to once again interrupt the output of Ukrainian grain as sanctions against his country continue. That put wheat back in December position above US$300 and the firmness of the cereal seems long-term: December 2023 grain is trading above US$320 per ton in Chicago.
Rapeseed also remains above US$500although with a calmer market than in the last harvest, when it reached prices above US$700. Locally, the crops seem to be accommodating the flowering that is coloring the Uruguayan fields yellow.
The state of wheat and barley is very good. They continue to aim to repeat a high-yield harvest, but the confirmation that La Niña continues until the end of the year raises doubts as to whether the crops have enough water in October to express a very high yield.
Politics and the weather will determine the trajectory of the market, but if Ukraine’s sales are maintained and there are no extreme events with Brazilian soybeans, a 2023 with lower prices than 2021/22 and with adjusted input-output ratios is shaping up. The pandemic and the war are beginning to take their toll on the purchasing power of consumers and on the price that Uruguayan producers receive.
