Where will the money come from to finance it? In the same project it is established that of ordinary resources, of resources directly collected, resources for official credit operations, donations and transfers, and determined resources.
The former Minister of Economy and Finance Carlos Oliva explained to this newspaper that the problem arises when economic growth is raised with great optimism, such as 3.3% for 2022 and 3.5% for 2023. “It is established that tax revenues are going to grow X because They assume that the economy will grow 3.5%, but what if the economy grows 3% or 2.5%? The expected income will be lower, since if growth decreases, the collection of VAT, Income Tax, etc. decreases. That is why I say that there is a risk that, if these optimistic forecasts are not fulfilled, there may be an impact on the fiscal deficit”, added the also president of the Fiscal Council (CF).
He indicated that this situation would lead to greater indebtedness, but within the parameters of the fiscal rule, or to the reduction of expenses.
For his part, the former head of the MEF David Tuesta shared the position of Carlos Oliva, and added that the external outlook and a lower price of raw materials are not being considered either, “therefore, a lower fiscal income.”
“The high mistrust of the government and its effects on private investment are also being minimized. In addition, anti-productive measures such as those related to Agenda 19 and labor actions that are not going through institutional frameworks are being underestimated, ”he added.
In the same way, he considered that what can happen is that, when you want to make an adjustment to the budget, it is taken from the amount destined for investment projects.
The former minister pointed out that Peru still has credibility to obtain loans, but “the problem is that bad signs are presented or that the money obtained ends up being diverted.”
MORE DISBURSEMENT
Another problem detected by the former Minister of Economy and Finance Luis Miguel Castilla is that next year’s budget execution would be low, taking into account that there will be new authorities.
As of August, the budget advance in Education, which is the sector that will receive the most money in 2023, is 55.5% at the three levels of government. In the case of the national government, only 46.9%, that is, less than half.
“In addition, we must take into account that more money is being granted to sectors with greater questioning, such as Transportation and Housing,” he stressed.
He also noted that a high copper price is being considered, which would allow more collection, when the value, rather, is contracting.
