In the last 20 years, political history reveals that the Colorado Party (ANR) has always been in the minority against the opposition parties. However, he almost always wins the elections.
In 2003, Nicanor Duarte Frutos (ANR) defeated Julio César “Yoyito” Franco by 204 thousand votes. However, Pedro Fadul, also an opposition candidate, obtained 328,000 votes. In other words, if the opposition was united, it would have comfortably won these elections.
In 2008 there was a victory for the opposition because the main candidate at the time (Fernando Lugo) generated so much acceptance that he alone was able to obtain more votes than the ANR.
In 2013, the ANR won the PLRA by 215 votes. What was striking was that the candidacies of Mario Ferreiro and Aníbal Carrillo Iramáin, (both opponents) achieved 222 thousand votes together. This without adding the other minor candidates, so once again, the divided opposition turned out to be functional for the Colorado Party.
In 2018, the ANR achieved a difference of 96 thousand votes with the PLRA. Here, Juan Bautista Ybáñez of the Paraguayan Green Party obtained only 84 thousand votes and Jaro Anzóategui of the National Movement of Artists of Paraguay obtained 15 thousand votes. This without counting the other opponents who together added 47 votes.
APURIL
Gilberto Apuril, an independent national senator (exHagamos), explained that everyone has the right to run for office or not within or outside the Coalition. However, he affirmed that his conscience dictates that everyone must be united in the face of the next elections. “We know that the vast majority of the opposition is the majority of the electoral roll. And we should be united, since the division is what has led us to defeats. So, today faithful to that lesson learned, we should get together, despite our differences and stick together in a direction that will lead us to power in 2023. With the following remark, in 2023 we will not elect a new president or different. That year we are going to decide what kind of country we want,” he said.
Apuril had to leave the Hagamos party despite being one of the founders. This, because the current president, Patrick Kemper, decided to leave the Coalition. As Apuril believes that the opposition bloc should be united, he resigned. He is currently part of the list of “Senators for the Fatherland”, representing the Progressive Democratic Party (PDP).
The legislator affirmed that the ANR has obtained a ceiling of 30% of the census with all the “quasi-military” exercise of its structure. That means 70% are against it. “That means that with 30% they get 100% of the country’s power, we have to start managing the numbers. In terms of participation, in the general as well as in the municipal ones. Absenteeism is around 40%, so half of the remaining 60% is for the ANR. The other half loses because it is divided on one side and because there is a great absenteeism because they do not find representation for sure. That is why the Coalition must transmit the message that we are going to be together, we understand that democracy and the country demand that union”, he concluded.
BATTER
Marcelo Bater, a political analyst, pointed out that if the opposition is divided in the next presidential elections; “they are dead” and the same will happen with the ANR. “The question is if there is a project or if it is a gathering of people. If they are going to leave their egos and personal desires, it boils down to that. If they go separate they lose,” he noted.
The analyst explains that the only thing that interests the population is that the economy is stabilized, that corruption ends and that the external debt is paid. “They must come together in a country project that serves everyone. If they unite to fight in Congress, they serve us. They always win the simple majority. If Euclid goes for his slope, and Burt for the other, it is useless. It makes things easier for the NRA”, he explained.
He finally argued that since there is no ballot (second round), the first majority wins. That is, a candidate who obtains 20% can reach the presidency if the remaining 80% is divided into small factions. “If there were a second round, the people who did not want to vote for the anr would only have one more option. We must remember that by tradition, when the potatoes burn, they come together in the ANR”, he stressed.
DUARTE
Marcelo Duarte, a former senator for the Patria Querida (PQ) party, pointed out that the problem was due to the fact that the Coalition had not fully matured. Therefore, there were people who were dissatisfied and ended up leaving. “The people who go on the outside of course have a chance of winning. At the moment of truth, people can take the option that seems most convincing to them. We must bear in mind that in these elections the Colorado party also has its divisions”, he commented.
For the analyst, this division will be an inconvenience for the Coalition. “The facts cannot be altered, what remains is to try to get the opposition sectors to persuade the electorate that the options offered are the best. The Colorado party also has a great internal division that can affect its electoral result”, he concluded.
The presidential internal elections will be next Sunday, December 18. While the general elections will be on Sunday, April 30, 2023. The opposition formed the Concertación for the first time in history, however, several actors decide to withdraw and leave, alleging differences with Efraín Alegre, president of the PLRA and presidential candidate. This generates concern in the opposition bloc about the possibility that the division of votes will end up facilitating the victory of the ANR.
